
Tech • IA • Crypto
Jerome Powell delivered his final press conference as Fed Chair, warning about threats to central bank independence. He remains a governor, preserving influence over policy alongside a largely hawkish FOMC. Christopher Waller is expected to take leadership, with markets awaiting clarity on his stance. Rate cuts remain unlikely, with probabilities near 5–6% this year.
Crude oil prices climbed toward $109–$115 per barrel amid escalating Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Supply constraints and geopolitical risks are tightening global energy markets. The move is fueling inflation concerns and pressuring risk assets including crypto. A breakout could trigger broader volatility across financial markets.
Bitcoin is in a retracement phase as rising oil and hawkish Fed signals dampen risk appetite. A stronger U.S. dollar and persistent inflation reduce liquidity for speculative assets. Despite resilience in equities, crypto faces near-term downside risks. Market direction remains tightly linked to macro conditions.
Altcoins may see a Q2 rebound toward $490B–$520B total market cap, but analysts reject the idea of a full altseason. Current price action resembles a technical retracement within a broader downtrend. Liquidity constraints and macro tightening continue to limit upside. A true bottom is likely below the $312B 2024 low.
Ethereum is grappling with internal instability despite strong fundamentals. The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped roughly 60–65%, reflecting weak relative performance. Leadership turmoil within the Ethereum Foundation and a controversial 38-page mandate have eroded confidence. Institutional demand lags far behind Bitcoin ETFs.
Institutional investors increased Solana long positions by 26.9% on the CME, signaling strategic accumulation. A key price gap between $106 and $117 is seen as a likely target. Despite this, short-term structure remains bearish with potential downside below $80. Long-term positioning suggests confidence in recovery.
Warren Buffett holds a record $350 billion in cash, signaling caution across traditional markets. Meanwhile, firms like BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are guiding clients into Bitcoin ETFs. Sovereign wealth funds are also entering crypto exposure. This divergence highlights uncertainty ahead of major macro shifts.
France removed the requirement to declare crypto wallets above €5,000, easing regulatory pressure. The move is seen as a win for privacy and adoption within the EU. Firms like Ledger are promoting hardware solutions such as Nano Gen 5 and Ledger Flex. The policy shift could support broader retail participation.