Tech • IA • Crypto
La vérité cachée derrière le discours de POWELL
8/10TL;DR
Jerome Powell officially ended his term as Federal Reserve Chair amid concerns about Fed independence and inflation, with Waller set to succeed him, while rising Middle East tensions push oil prices higher, impacting global markets and inflation expectations; in crypto, Avalanche implements a recovery plan and stablecoin usage surges.
KEY POINTS
Jerome Powell’s Last Press Conference and Fed Independence
Jerome Powell held his final press conference as Fed Chair, emphasizing risks to the Federal Reserve’s independence from political influence, notably during the Trump administration. Unlike predecessors who retired fully, Powell remains a Fed governor, maintaining significant influence. Despite political pressure, the Fed’s majority supports a tough stance on inflation, with only one dissenting vote favoring rate cuts. Powell highlighted the Fed’s dual mission of controlling inflation and maximizing employment, stating current challenges make this balance increasingly difficult.
Transition to Christopher Waller
Powell's departure paves the way for Christopher Waller to take the helm of the Fed. The market expects Waller to clarify his monetary policy stance soon. However, Powell’s continued presence as governor indicates ongoing continuity and possible resistance to political pressure.
Rising Middle East Tensions and Surging Oil Prices
Escalations in Iran have driven oil prices to around $109 per barrel, surpassing previous highs from March and April. Powell acknowledged that while the US is less affected than Europe or Asia, the geopolitical risk remains a significant inflationary pressure on the US economy. This complicates the Fed’s task of taming inflation amid constrained supply and potential disruptions in energy markets.
US Stock Market Resilience and Volatility
Despite broader tensions and inflation concerns, the Nasdaq Composite remains elevated, trading above 27,000 points. However, recent "wick" patterns in price charts point to liquidity taking and possible short-term retracements. A closing below this key level could trigger further declines, although a major crash is not anticipated at present.
Crypto Sector Developments: Avalanche Recovery Plan
Avalanche (AV) announced and activated a strategic plan to absorb and regularize staked ETH tokens (rsETH) affected by a recent hacking incident linked to a third-party bridge, not Avalanche itself. Several protocols, including Defi United, collaborated on this solution, strengthening confidence in Avalanche’s crisis management and governance.
Future US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Possible
Discussions are underway for the US to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, possibly funded by revaluing gold certificates—which are currently recorded at antiquated prices—and the use of dollar printing mechanisms. Brian Ruder (Bryan Rudic) suggests official announcements may come in the coming weeks, although timelines remain uncertain. This move would mark a significant shift in national reserve asset strategy.
Explosion in Stablecoin Usage
Data for 2025 show a near doubling in stablecoin transactions compared to Visa’s volume, underpinning rapid adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions. This reflects strong institutional interest in blockchain-enabled finance, signaling mainstream maturation and integration of digital assets into global financial systems.
Tether’s Proposed Merger with 21 Capital
Tether, the issuer of the USDT stablecoin, is reportedly considering a merger with 21 Capital, a crypto investment firm with mining interests. The aim is to diversify beyond stablecoins, expand capital resources, and position for a potential IPO after two unsuccessful attempts, possibly lifting Tether’s market stature.
Technical Insights on Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin remains above its 100-day EMA, with no structural breakdown at the key resistance level of around $73,600. Market patterns resemble a bear flag formation, common during downtrends, but potential exists for a bottom formation given recent monthly candles. Psychological investor behavior is critical now to avoid panic selling or FOMO-induced overbuying amid uncertain signals.
Crypto Market Performance Relative to Nasdaq
Since April 24, Bitcoin has underperformed relative to the Nasdaq, nearing a lower range of relative strength. This divergence may indicate a pending market pause or brief regrouping before the next leg of movement, with short-term volatility expected.
CONCLUSION
The Federal Reserve faces a challenging economic environment with Powell’s exit marking a critical juncture amidst geopolitical inflation pressures and political tensions. Simultaneously, cryptocurrencies show resilience through strategic protocol actions and growing institutional adoption, signaling a complex but evolving financial landscape ahead.