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PÉTROLE HAUSSIER : GROS DANGER pour les MARCHÉS ! 🚨
8/10TL;DR
Oil is approaching the highs recorded in March, fueling tensions in financial markets and U.S. indices, while other key financial assets such as the VIX, eurodollar, and gold are showing technical signals to watch.
KEY POINTS
Oil at a crossroads
Oil prices are rising toward $115, close to the March highs. This move comes amid a geopolitical backdrop where the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed for several weeks, increasing supply concerns. This creates tension in the market with specific technical zones, including a recently formed "breaker" that could mark the delivery of the March high. A breakout above the current range could trigger a rise in the VIX, leading to a pullback in U.S. indices.
U.S. indices under watch
Yesterday, the Nasdaq reached a new ATH (all-time high), driven by volatile corporate earnings, but faced rejection this morning. Holding fair value gap zones is crucial to avoid a strong retracement signal. On the S&P 500, liquidity taken at the previous high maintains bullish momentum, but a red close could signal a move back toward weekly lows. The Dow Jones is already in a retracement phase, having hit a key weekly fair value gap level.
Potential impact of the VIX
Volatility, as expressed by the VIX, remains contained for now, with no clear sign of resurgence. However, a breakout in oil’s range could trigger a rise in the VIX, increasing selling pressure on the most exposed indices.
The dollar on fragile technical footing
The dollar continues to revisit its gaps and weekly fair value gaps, particularly since the March low. Expectations of interest rate hikes remain a key factor; at this stage, the market assigns about a 6% probability to a rate increase this year. As long as this probability stays low (well below 50%), the dollar struggles to break above its highs. A significant rise in oil prices beyond $150 would act as an inflation catalyst, favoring more aggressive rate hikes and a stronger dollar.
Gold under pressure, with dominant bearish flow
Gold has been rejected at its weekly fair value gap and is testing weekly lows. The daily flow remains bearish, although key zones should be monitored, including a support around $4444 suggested by models. A forthcoming "breaker" could signal a reversal and open the way for rebounds, but for now the trend remains bearish, with short opportunities considered as long as technical supports are not confirmed.
Technical levels to watch on indices
Fair value gap zones play a central role in upcoming index moves. On the Nasdaq and S&P 500, a red close below these zones would signal a significant retracement, while a bounce could extend the rally. The Dow Jones presents a specific case: the strategy is to wait for a clear "breaker" before entering a swing long, targeting previous highs.
Outlook on the eurodollar
The eurodollar is also working through a gap, with a risk of new lows depending on its position relative to weekly fair value gaps. A break of these levels could trigger an adjustment in the dollar index, though this depends on major shifts in rates or oil prices.
Macro context and expected volatility
The day will be marked by the release of U.S. economic indicators, including the first estimate of quarterly GDP and the PCE index (inflation), which could either amplify or ease market volatility. This release is key to refining the outlook for future dollar and rate trajectories.
CONCLUSION
The surge in oil prices toward its March highs is fueling uncertainty, likely impacting volatility and the trend of U.S. indices. Close monitoring of key technical zones, volatility indices, and economic data will be crucial to anticipate the next market moves.