Tech • IA • Crypto
LES MARCHÉS NE S'ARRÊTENT PLUS ! ATH À VENIR ? 🔥
7/10TL;DR
The Dow Jones shows strong bullish continuation signals amid key technical levels, while the dollar, oil, and gold markets await pivotal movements influenced by recent economic data and market dynamics.
KEY POINTS
Dow Jones signals bullish continuation
A significant reaction in the Dow Jones occurred near a previously identified zone, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend for U.S. indices. The index exhibited a sharp "squeeze" after forming a breaker pattern and returning below the weekly low, resulting in a price inversion. The current market stance suggests that as long as the Dow does not produce a new all-time high (ATH), the U.S. stock indices are expected to remain bullish for the quarter. Traders are targeting higher areas on the chart, aiming to capitalize on this momentum.
NASDAQ maintains support, but momentum slows
The NASDAQ is currently holding its key gap support and weekly lows, though the momentum appears to be easing. While no clear bearish structure has formed yet, stops might be taken out soon, potentially acting as a trigger for further movement. Market watchers expect a potential retest of the weekly low or gap next week, which could set the stage for continuation patterns. Despite some slowdown, the overall technical bias remains positive pending further price action.
S&P 500 also remains bullish with new ATH
The S&P 500 has made a new all-time high, continuing a monthly bullish trajectory. It may develop a fresh "fire value gap" that could offer an attractive zone for price repricing and continuation of the uptrend. Analysts anticipate a possible short-term cleanup of recent lows before the index resumes higher, aligned with the broader market's upward bias driven by the Dow Jones’s performance.
USD dynamics influenced by weaker GDP and steady inflation
Recent U.S. GDP figures came in slightly below expectations at 2%, compared to the anticipated 2.2%, while Core PCE inflation matched forecasts. This lower GDP reduces the likelihood of near-term interest rate hikes, shifting market expectations significantly. Probability of rate increases in 2027 has dropped from nearly 50% to below 20%, and for 2026 to around 5%. The dollar index has responded with a potential bearish breaker and a retracement toward the April lows, signaling possible short-term weakness or consolidation.
Oil prices contained but range-bound with inflation implications
Oil prices continue to hover near recent order block levels from March and April, exerting price pressure yet not impacting volatility (VIX) or equities significantly. The current range could break either higher or lower; a breakout to the upside would raise inflation concerns and market stress, potentially increasing volatility and unsettling markets. Conversely, a downward break could ease inflation fears and allow geopolitical negotiations, such as U.S.-Iran talks, to progress quietly.
VIX volatility gauge signals calmer markets
The VIX is currently at a new low and working through a weekly fair value gap. If it breaks downward further, it confirms reduced market risk and supports the prospect of rising U.S. stock indices with the Dow Jones reaching new highs. Investors will closely monitor whether the gap resolves upward or downward as a barometer for market sentiment and risk appetite.
Gold shows bearish continuation potential but watch key levels
Gold recently touched a fair value area that aligns with a prior low and rejection zone, suggesting a probable bearish continuation toward the April low around 1,444 points. While some short-term descending patterns are observable, sustained bearish momentum requires price to establish beneath current lows. The consolidation after liquidity recovery is consistent with ongoing correction rather than reversal. Traders are advised to watch the fair value gap closely to gauge future directional moves.
Market participants emphasize caution amid technical setups
Despite the generally bullish bias across U.S. indices, investors and traders are recommended to exhibit patience and not rush into aggressive trading positions, especially as some key targets have already been reached this week. Strategy involves waiting for retracements—especially in the NASDAQ—and observing whether the market respects important technical levels before committing further capital.
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CONCLUSION
Strong technical signals from the Dow Jones and other major U.S. indices suggest continued bullish momentum in the short to medium term, supported by easing expectations of rate hikes and stable inflation data. Meanwhile, oil and gold markets remain in critical zones where breaks could influence broader market sentiment, underscoring the importance of close monitoring of key support and resistance levels.