Tech • IA • Crypto
BITCOIN : REPRISE de la CHUTE ! 🚨 (c'est un piège)
8/10TL;DR
Rising oil prices near new highs are adding pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, which is currently in a retracement phase, while US economic data and Federal Reserve signals suggest cautious market conditions.
KEY POINTS
Oil Approaches New Highs, Creating Market Pressure Oil prices are nearing a new peak above $115-$116 per barrel, tightening supply amidst strong demand. The market remains within a trading range, but technical indicators suggest a likely breakout to the upside soon. This rise in oil is increasing pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, as investors watch for potential volatility stemming from energy price inflation.
US Federal Reserve Signals a Hawkish Stance The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently maintained interest rates without cuts. Jerome Powell confirmed he will remain a Fed official, continuing to influence policy. The market now assigns only a 5-6% chance of rate cuts this year, while the chance of rate hikes has rebounded to 12%. This hawkish outlook dampens enthusiasm for riskier assets and keeps the dollar firm.
US Earnings and Indices Remain Resilient Despite concerns about an impending US stock market correction, corporate earnings continue to set new records, supporting ongoing bullish momentum in indices like the Nasdaq, which hit an all-time high recently. Price-to-earnings ratios, though elevated, remain below historic extremes such as those seen in 2009, underpinning investor confidence.
Critical Economic Data to Watch: GDP and Core PCE Upcoming US GDP growth and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data are crucial. A GDP slowdown combined with higher-than-expected inflation would signal stagflation risks, negative for market sentiment. Conversely, stronger GDP and contained inflation would be positive signals.
Dollar Remains Steady with Limited Upside for Now The US dollar is retracing recent gains, filling prior valuation gaps but unlikely to break key highs unless the probability of further rate hikes jumps dramatically above 50%. Markets monitor these probabilities closely as they influence currency strength and risk asset pricing.
Bitcoin Under Pressure, Currently in a Retracement Phase Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a daily price rejection at a key level, indicating a possible short-term top and initiating a retracement. The focus is on reclaiming liquidity levels and filling CME gaps, with key support zones near $73,200 to $74,000 being observed. A sustained break below these levels could signal lower lows, while holding them leaves open the chance of future upward momentum.
Technical Patterns Signal Possible Further Declines in Bitcoin Current price action shows break below daily highs with “breaker bearish” patterns consistent with reversals. Attempts to rally have stalled at zones of prior liquidity, reinforcing the downward trend. The market appears to be purging stop-loss orders on the long side to set up for the next move.
Ethereum (ETH) Mirrors Bitcoin’s Weakness, Underperforming BTC Ethereum is currently weaker than Bitcoin, confirmed by ETH/BTC ratio signaling a bearish stance for ETH this quarter. ETH failed to set new highs recently and is testing support around $2,150 to $2,170. Like BTC, ETH is in a retracement, with key CME gaps and support levels targeted for retesting, pointing to more downside pressure before any recovery.
Stablecoin and ETF Demand Indicates Reduced Market Appetite Stablecoin issuance has halted, reflecting waning buying pressure in the crypto market. ETF inflows have also declined, correlating to the subdued demand and rationalizing the ongoing retracement phases in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Potential Market Reaction to Oil Price Surge If oil breaks above current resistance and sustains new highs, market volatility (VIX) may increase, causing stress on equity markets and cryptocurrencies. Political moves, including potential negotiations involving Iran and the reopening of key oil routes, may try to stabilize the situation, but uncertainty remains a key risk factor.
Long-Term Outlook Suggests Retracement Before Recovery Analyses of weekly and daily charts suggest Bitcoin and Ethereum may continue retracing previously strong impulse zones before attempting a gradual recovery later in the year. The bottom for Bitcoin is not yet confirmed, with expected price tests potentially falling below $59,000. The coming months may see gradual stair-step moves within key valuation gaps as the market consolidates.
CONCLUSION
Rising oil prices and persistent Fed hawkishness are creating headwinds for risk assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are undergoing technical retracements marked by liquidity chasing and gap fills. Market resilience in US equities remains tied to strong corporate earnings and economic data. Investors should watch key GDP and inflation figures along with oil and interest rate developments to gauge the trajectory of both traditional and crypto markets.