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🚨 Iran–USA: Tensions Rise! Warning for Markets?
3/10TL;DR
A modest rebound in the dollar and oil is cooling momentum in equity indices, but markets still appear positioned for a continuation higher after a potential short-term dip.
KEY POINTS
Dollar and oil rebound signal pressure
The US dollar has started to edge higher while oil prices show early signs of recovery. This combination is historically associated with tightening financial conditions, which can weigh on equity markets. Although the moves remain limited, they are enough to slow the upward momentum seen in recent weeks.
Oil market hints at geopolitical risk
Despite recent consolidation, oil has left prior highs intact, suggesting the absence of a confirmed top. This structure raises the اŘتمال of renewed upward pressure, potentially linked to geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions. A return toward previous highs could reintroduce volatility across global markets.
Limited downside unless inflation spikes
A sustained surge in oil could reignite inflation concerns, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive stance. Such a scenario could trigger deeper equity corrections. However, absent a sharp breakout in oil, the broader expectation remains for only shallow pullbacks in risk assets.
Nasdaq momentum shows early slowdown
The Nasdaq continues to trend upward, but shorter timeframes reveal weakening momentum. Price action suggests a likely liquidity sweep below recent lows, a common setup before continuation. This type of move is often interpreted as a reset rather than a reversal.
Key levels attract buyers
Several intact daily lows form a clear liquidity zone that could be targeted in the near term. A move into this “discount” area is viewed as a high-probability entry point for swing traders positioning for further upside. Confluence with a weekly fair value gap strengthens this scenario.
Bullish structure remains intact
The broader trend remains firmly bullish, with projections pointing toward significantly higher levels. Technical patterns such as AB=CD extensions suggest potential upside targets around 32,400 points for the Nasdaq, provided current dynamics hold.
S&P 500 shows divergence, not reversal
The S&P 500 is also exhibiting signs of slowing momentum, including confirmed bearish divergences on indicators like MACD. However, divergences typically signal deceleration rather than trend reversal. The underlying bullish structure remains unchanged.
Macroeconomic data may trigger short-term volatility
Upcoming US labor market data, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate, are expected to influence short-term price action. A higher-than-expected unemployment rate could briefly unsettle markets, though historically such reactions tend to reverse quickly.
Market resilience supported by earnings outlook
Strong expectations for corporate earnings growth through 2027–2028 continue to underpin equity markets. Even negative macro surprises have recently resulted in short-lived declines followed by renewed buying, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment.
European indices follow similar pattern
Major European indices such as the DAX and CAC 40 are also trending upward, albeit with reduced volatility. Technical structures suggest continued accumulation below resistance levels, with expectations of new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term.
CONCLUSION
While short-term momentum is fading amid a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices, the dominant trend across global equity markets remains bullish, with any near-term dip likely viewed as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a sustained decline.