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Bitcoin Lags Nasdaq Rebound as Solana Signals Deeper Drop

CryptoSaturday, August 1, 2026· 7 videos

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Bitcoin lags Nasdaq reversal signal

The Nasdaq printed a bullish engulfing pattern, often associated with market bottoms and trend reversals. Despite this, Bitcoin failed to follow equities higher, showing clear relative weakness. The divergence comes even as macro conditions, including a softer US dollar, typically support risk assets. This decoupling raises concerns about crypto’s ability to participate in a broader risk-on rally.

Bitcoin loses key 38.2% support

Bitcoin has broken below the critical 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, confirmed on the CME futures chart. This level has flipped from support to resistance, signaling weakening momentum. Additional bearish signals include rejection from imbalance zones and loss of VWAP control. Together, these factors point toward a likely continuation of the downtrend.

Liquidity targets cluster near $61K

Market structure suggests Bitcoin is gravitating toward liquidity pockets around $61,000–$61,500. These zones contain dense stop orders, making them natural short-term price targets. The move would align with recent bearish breakdown signals. Failure to hold higher levels increases the probability of this liquidity sweep.

Institutional demand weakens sharply

Flows into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF have dropped from roughly $800 million to near neutral levels. Derivatives positioning also shows limited long exposure from institutional players. This lack of conviction undermines bullish continuation scenarios. Weak institutional support is increasingly cited as a key headwind for crypto markets.

AI capex drains crypto liquidity

Tech giants including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle are deploying nearly $700 billion into AI infrastructure. This historic capital allocation is drawing funds away from speculative assets like crypto. Bitcoin is now competing with high-growth AI narratives rather than cash. The shift highlights a reallocation problem, not a liquidity shortage.

M2 divergence challenges Bitcoin thesis

Global money supply (M2) remains near all-time highs, yet Bitcoin trades well below prior peaks. Historically, these metrics moved closely together, but that relationship has broken down. Some analysts argue broader liquidity measures peaked in mid-2025, explaining the divergence. Others note financial conditions remain relatively loose, deepening the debate.

Solana signals deeper bearish phase

Solana (SOL) is showing renewed downside risk after failing to sustain recovery attempts. The key level sits at $73.67, with a break reinforcing a bearish continuation. Downside targets range between $45–$50 and $33–$37. The broader structure remains negative after nearly 10 consecutive bearish monthly candles.

On-chain activity and volumes collapse

Solana’s decentralized exchange volumes have dropped from $10–$30 billion peaks to around $1 billion. This represents a decline of up to 30x, signaling reduced user engagement. On-chain revenue and activity metrics are also deteriorating. The data reinforces the view that the market is still in a contraction phase.

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