Tech • IA • Crypto
Solana: this drop could change everything for the next cycle
6/10TL;DR
The Solana (SOL) market is sending converging technical and fundamental signals pointing to a continuation of the bearish phase, despite longer-term rebound prospects.
KEY POINTS
An ongoing technical reversal
Chart indicators suggest the end of a rebound and a return of selling pressure. After several recovery attempts, the price is at risk of closing lower on the monthly timeframe, a pattern seen in previous correction phases. The critical threshold lies around $73.67, whose loss would reinforce the bearish scenario.
A structurally bearish market
With nearly 10 consecutive bearish monthly candles, the underlying trend remains a bear market. The repetition of technical patterns, notably rejections at former highs, confirms a continuation dynamic to the downside, at least in the short to medium term.
Significantly lower price targets
Several technical zones are identified as potential targets. A first liquidity area lies between $45 and $50, while a second could be tested between $33 and $37. Some models even project extensions toward $36 to $45, reinforcing the idea that a bottom is still forming.
Sharply deteriorating metrics
Fundamental data confirms current weakness. Volumes on decentralized exchanges have fallen from peaks of $10 to $30 billion to about $1 billion, a drop of up to 10 to 30 times. On-chain revenue and overall activity also show a marked decline, reflecting user disengagement.
The end of the memecoin speculative effect
The massive enthusiasm seen in 2024–2025, especially around memecoins, has faded. This dynamic had strongly supported Solana’s activity and revenue. Its disappearance directly contributes to the current contraction in metrics.
Increasingly aggressive competition
For the first time, Solana faces competitors capable of capturing significant market share. Platforms such as Pump, Hyperliquid, and BNB Chain show more resilient metrics, or even growth in some segments, particularly in volume and fees.
Potential support around $67
Significant institutional buying has taken place around $67, totaling several billion dollars. This level could limit selling pressure in the short term, as these players have an interest in defending their positions.
A future dependent on fundamentals
A recovery will depend on improving metrics: on-chain activity, volumes, and revenue. The emergence of new use cases, such as prediction markets or derivatives, will be key to reigniting interest. The presence of Solana-related ETFs could also attract institutional capital.
CONCLUSION
Solana is entering a critical phase where technical weakness and declining activity combine, making a continued correction likely before any rebound dependent on renewed demand and growing competition.