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Who’s really running Iran? | The Economist
5/10TL;DR
Iran’s leadership structure remains intact despite high-level assassinations, but uncertainty around its new supreme leader and shifting power toward the Revolutionary Guards complicates the country’s strategic outlook.
KEY POINTS
Existential conflict and fragile ceasefire
Iran is engaged in what officials view as an existential struggle following a brief 12-day war that ended in a fragile ceasefire without a lasting agreement. That truce steadily unraveled, reinforcing expectations in Tehran that hostilities with the United States and Israel would resume. The renewed conflict has been marked by targeted strikes aimed at destabilizing Iran’s القيادة.
Decapitation strikes and leadership losses
Joint U.S.-Israeli operations have reportedly succeeded in killing Iran’s supreme leader along with multiple layers of senior military leadership. These decapitation strategies were designed to disrupt command structures and decision-making capacity. Despite the scale of losses, replacement figures have emerged from within established networks rather than from outside the النظام.
Continuity in governance mechanisms
Iran’s political system continues to function through a consensus-based model, particularly within the Supreme National Security Council. Key decisions are still made collectively, often through formal votes, such as a recent agreement reportedly approved by 12 of 13 members. This continuity suggests institutional resilience despite external shocks.
Uncertainty around the new supreme leader
The role and influence of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, remain unclear. He has not appeared publicly and is reportedly recovering from injuries sustained earlier in the year. Questions persist بشأن his political authority, decision-making style, and ability to command loyalty across factions.
Fluid political factions
Labels such as “hardliner” and “moderate” oversimplify Iran’s political landscape. The system is historically factionalized, with figures shifting between conservative, pragmatist, and reformist positions over time. Even prominent individuals previously seen as pragmatic negotiators have been targeted, underscoring the complexity of internal alignments.
Shared priority: regime survival
Despite ideological diversity, Iran’s political factions are unified in prioritizing the security and stability of the regime. Differences tend to emerge over tactics rather than overarching strategy. This shared objective has helped maintain coherence even after leadership disruptions.
Rational strategic outlook
Iranian decision-making is driven by a coherent, if distinct, strategic logic rooted in perceptions of encirclement by hostile powers. Tehran’s doctrine of forward defense emphasizes active regional engagement to counter perceived threats. This approach often clashes with Western interests but reflects calculated policy rather than irrational behavior.
Rising influence of the IRGC
The balance of power داخل Iran appears to be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The group’s growing influence may shape both military and political decisions during the conflict. However, historical patterns suggest the system could rebalance toward broader consensus governance once hostilities subside.
Loss of a central balancing figure
The late supreme leader had dominated Iran’s political system for decades, building extensive patronage networks and acting as a key arbiter among competing factions. His ability to manage اختلافات and enforce consensus was central to regime stability. His absence leaves a significant gap in leadership cohesion.
Leadership transition challenges
Mojtaba Khamenei inherits a system without his predecessor’s authority or established networks. Personal factors, including reported injuries and family losses, may further affect his leadership capacity. The long-term stability of Iran’s governance model will depend on how effectively he consolidates control and navigates factional dynamics.
CONCLUSION
Iran’s political system has demonstrated resilience after severe leadership losses, but uncertainty surrounding its new supreme leader and shifting internal power dynamics could significantly influence its future trajectory.
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