Tech • AI • Robotics
The Next 20 Years: Tesla & SpaceX
9.4/10TL;DR
A long-range valuation thesis argues that Tesla and SpaceX could evolve from major industrial companies into core infrastructure platforms for energy, transport, compute, intelligence and labor over the next two decades.
KEY POINTS
From growth stocks to system-level platforms
The base case does not frame Tesla and SpaceX as conventional high-growth companies. It treats them as businesses that could reshape how the global economy moves information, goods, energy and work. By the mid-2030s, the combined scale is portrayed as far beyond that of two successful technology firms, and by the mid-2040s the outcome becomes explicitly multi-trillion-dollar in scope.
SpaceX near term: launch, Starlink and early AI infrastructure
In 2026, SpaceX is still modeled as a recognizable business built on frequent launches, expanding Starlink service and early investment in AI infrastructure. Revenue is described only in the tens of billions of dollars, large by historical standards but small relative to later projections. The late 2020s are treated as a proving ground for Starship-class heavy lift and global broadband.
Starlink as a global communications fabric
During the 2030s, Starlink is projected to become a major profit center through home internet, mobile connectivity and enterprise backbone services. The thesis rests on a high-capacity satellite network linked by laser communications and supported by next-generation spacecraft. In this scenario, launch remains strategically essential but ceases to be the main source of financial value.
AI compute becomes SpaceX’s dominant business
The largest shift in the model comes from intelligence infrastructure. Terrestrial AI data centers and later orbital computing under a concept referred to as StarMind turn SpaceX into a seller of computing power at planetary scale. By the mid-2030s, AI-related operating profit is expected to exceed both launch and Starlink, and by the mid-2040s it becomes the company’s dominant profit engine, with operating profit alone measured in the trillions of dollars per year.
Software upside is acknowledged but not central
The thesis assumes SpaceX captures a meaningful position in AI software and models without requiring long-term category leadership. That makes the software layer a conservative element within an otherwise aggressive forecast. If AI products outperform that assumption, the model implies substantial upside beyond the base case.
Tesla in 2026 still looks familiar
In 2026, Tesla is still primarily a vehicle business, with cars generating most profit. Energy storage is already a significant second business, while Full Self-Driving software is growing but not yet dominant. Robotaxi and Optimus contribute little in the early years of the projection.
Tesla’s 2030s transition: batteries and autonomy
Through the 2030s, the mix shifts away from cars as the whole story. Utility-scale energy storage becomes a major industrial franchise as grids and AI data centers require more battery capacity even while average selling prices decline along a learning curve. At the same time, autonomy scales across the vehicle fleet, and robotaxi service is expected to become financially meaningful once regulation and network readiness permit unsupervised operation at large scale.
Optimus emerges as the largest Tesla profit engine
By the mid-2040s, vehicle hardware profit is described as a minor part of Tesla relative to newer businesses. Annual energy storage deployments are projected at roughly 1 terawatt-hour. Robotaxi becomes a major pillar, but the model’s biggest change is Optimus, with humanoid robots and associated software becoming the single largest source of profit, effectively positioning Tesla as a supplier of general-purpose labor.
Merger seen as plausible but not necessary
A combination of Tesla and SpaceX is treated as optional rather than essential to the valuation thesis. Potential synergies in manufacturing, AI and overhead are considered real but secondary. The larger argument is that both companies address linked bottlenecks in a future shaped by abundant energy, autonomous transport, large-scale compute and machine labor, so each company’s success increases the plausibility of the other’s trajectory.
CONCLUSION
The thesis presents an unusually aggressive view of Tesla and SpaceX, with value creation driven less by cars and rockets than by control over infrastructure for connectivity, AI, energy storage, autonomy and robotics. Whether or not a merger ever occurs, the central claim is that both companies could become foundational layers of a far more automated and compute-intensive global economy.
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