Tech • IA • Crypto
Bitcoin: the calm before a violent comeback? (my view)
6/10TL;DR
U.S. equities are pushing toward new highs while Bitcoin lags with weak momentum, raising the risk of a near-term bearish move amid low liquidity.
KEY POINTS
Equities regain bullish momentum
The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have rebounded strongly after what appears to be a completed bearish trap. Both indices are approaching or targeting new all-time highs, with only a few percentage points needed for the S&P 500 to break records. Market structure suggests continued upside in the coming days or weeks.
Bitcoin decouples from traditional markets
Despite the rally in equities, Bitcoin has failed to follow, showing little upward response. The divergence highlights weakening correlation, with Bitcoin reacting more strongly during equity downturns than during rallies, signaling fragility in crypto demand.
Bearish structure remains intact
Bitcoin continues to trade below a key resistance defined by its latest bearish impulse. As long as this level, around $65,368, holds, the short-term trend remains downward, with lower highs maintaining pressure on price action.
Key downside targets identified
A critical liquidity zone lies between $61,200 and $61,600, corresponding to a fair value gap observed in futures markets. This area is seen as a likely magnet if bearish momentum persists, especially given the current market structure.
Liquidity-driven price action dominates
The market is characterized by erratic moves aimed at triggering stop-losses rather than establishing direction. Repeated sweeps of both long and short positions indicate a non-directional, liquidity-hunting environment, often associated with low participation.
Weak market participation
Trading volumes and inflows remain subdued, with limited institutional activity. Stablecoin data shows net outflows, with nearly $2 billion removed from the market after a brief $400 million issuance in early July, reinforcing the lack of fresh capital.
Potential short-term scenarios
If Bitcoin fails to break above its recent lower high, further downside toward $61,200 is likely. Conversely, a breakout above resistance could trigger a move toward the $67,000–$70,000 range, where another liquidity zone remains untested.
Ethereum shows relative resilience
Ethereum has not yet confirmed a bearish breakdown, holding above key retracement levels. However, a drop below $1,800 would signal renewed downside, with targets extending toward $1,500 and potentially $1,384.
CONCLUSION
The contrast between strong equity markets and a stagnant Bitcoin underscores weakening crypto demand, with short-term risks skewed to the downside unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.