Tech • IA • Crypto
US Indices: The rebound masks a much greater danger
6/10TL;DR
Markets are awaiting a series of major earnings releases, in a context marked by macroeconomic tensions and mixed technical signals.
KEY POINTS
Key releases in tech and AI
Earnings from Google, Tesla, and soon Intel are drawing attention, with a central focus on artificial intelligence. These results must confirm whether massive investments in this sector are بالفعل translating into solid financial performance. The market could react strongly to any gap between expectations and results.
Mixed technical signals on the Nasdaq and S&P 500
The Nasdaq shows a slight rejection after returning to a key technical zone, without a major reversal signal. On the S&P 500 side, a zone of equal lows around 7473 points remains intact, suggesting a possible “liquidity sweep” toward 7468.5 points before a potential upward move.
Risk of consolidation before recovery
U.S. indices are in a transition phase, marked by a loss of momentum but without a clear bearish reversal. A consolidation pattern followed by expansion remains possible, especially if short-term liquidity grabs occur.
Rising pressure from oil
Oil remains at elevated levels and could target $95 if it breaks above $87. Such an increase would reinforce inflationary pressures, directly impacting monetary policy and equity markets.
Dollar under watch
The U.S. dollar remains in a fragile trend but could rebound in the event of a technical breakout. A target around 102.4 points is mentioned. Dollar strength would add pressure on risk assets, particularly indices and Bitcoin.
Rising expectations of rate hikes
The probability of more aggressive monetary tightening is increasing. The market now anticipates up to two rate hikes, with probability rising from about 20% to 35%. One hike is already largely priced in, at around 87% probability.
Volatility still contained
The VIX does not indicate immediate stress, pointing to a relatively stable market in the short term. However, a volatility spike remains possible if the dollar strengthens or if earnings disappoint.
European markets on hold
The DAX and the CAC 40 are in a consolidation phase. Despite an underlying bullish trend, the indices could still undergo technical corrections before aiming for new all-time highs.
CONCLUSION
Between decisive corporate earnings and persistent macroeconomic pressures, markets remain in a fragile balance where any surprise could trigger significant moves.