Tech • IA • Crypto
Bitcoin Alert! 🚨 First Bearish Signal!?
6/10TL;DR
Markets are preparing to face a decisive test with the release of U.S. inflation data, while Bitcoin and risk assets are showing signs of short-term tension.
KEY POINTS
An imminent stress test with U.S. inflation
The release of Core CPI is expected at 3.7%, a level that could strongly influence markets. A higher reading would heighten inflation concerns, while a lower one would be seen as a positive signal. This data, expected at 2:30 PM (Paris time), represents a major test for the current market dynamic.
Rate expectations remain stable
Markets are not pricing in either rate hikes or cuts in the short term. The probability of a hike in 2026 remains limited at around 20%, while expectations for cuts are nearly nonexistent this year. This relatively stable monetary backdrop continues to support risk assets.
Bitcoin under short-term technical pressure
Bitcoin is in a correction phase following the reopening of futures markets, with a gap being filled. A rejection zone has formed, suggesting possible resistance. A negative daily close could lead to a move back toward $79,100, or even a test of the weekly low.
A key zone between $77,000 and $78,500
The levels between $77,000 and $78,500 form a major technical zone, including a fair value gap and a partially filled gap. This area is seen as a potential bullish rebound point, in a context where the broader trend remains upward.
Weakening demand for Bitcoin
Indicators show a slowdown in buying pressure, notably through spot CVD and ETF flows, which have recorded several consecutive sessions of outflows. This drop in demand could justify a short-term consolidation before a rebound.
Equity markets remain strong
U.S. indices are still trending upward, supported by a declining VIX and continued inflows into risk assets. The lack of new highs on the Dow Jones leaves room for further upside, which could indirectly support Bitcoin.
Oil rebounds without causing concern
Oil is seeing a technical rebound but remains range-bound. As long as prices do not break key levels, the impact on markets stays limited. A potential move toward $115 remains possible without triggering immediate stress.
Ethereum supported by strong absorption
On Ethereum, massive selling pressure of over $500 million has been absorbed without significant price impact. This suggests the presence of strong buyers and reinforces the idea of reaccumulation, with prospects for continued upside.
CONCLUSION
Between crucial macroeconomic data and mixed technical signals, markets are entering a pivotal phase where volatility and opportunities are likely to coexist in the short term.