Tech • IA • Crypto
🚨 Bear market Bitcoin : la phase FINALE a commencé ?
7/10TL;DR
Bitcoin’s surge to $78,300 was driven by massive short liquidations and strong institutional inflows, while on-chain data signals a deeper market transition rather than a clear bullish reversal.
KEY POINTS
Sharp price spike amid heavy short squeeze
Bitcoin climbed rapidly from a $73,500–$75,500 range to $78,300 on April 17, marking its strongest daily move since mid-January. The rally triggered $526 million in short liquidations within 24 hours, one of the largest such events in three months. This reflects a heavily bearish market positioning being abruptly reversed.
Institutional inflows fueled the move
The surge coincided with approximately $664 million in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs in a single day, with weekly inflows nearing $1 billion. Additional capital deployment of $2.66 billion over 48 hours by major corporate buyers further reinforced demand, amplifying upward pressure.
Classic “spike and fade” pattern emerges
After peaking, Bitcoin retraced toward $73,800 and stabilized around $75,000–$76,000. This pattern indicates a short squeeze followed by rapid profit-taking, leaving price action largely unchanged relative to its prior range despite extreme volatility.
Spot demand, not leverage, drove buying
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shifted from negative to strongly positive, signaling genuine spot buying rather than leveraged speculation. This suggests real capital entered the market, absorbing available supply directly on order books.
Large-scale rotation from weak to strong holders
Over the past month, long-term holders accumulated more than 354,000 BTC, while short-term holders sent around 60,000 BTC to exchanges. This indicates a transfer of assets from recent buyers to more experienced investors, a pattern often seen during market transitions.
Short-term holders selling at a loss
The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for short-term holders remains below 1, confirming that many sellers are exiting positions at a loss. This behavior reflects capitulation rather than profit-taking, suggesting underlying stress among newer market participants.
Profitability levels remain below key threshold
Only 43.2% of short-term supply is currently in profit, well below the historical 54% level typically associated with widespread distribution. This gap implies limited immediate selling pressure but leaves room for increased supply if prices rise further.
Critical resistance tied to on-chain cost basis
The True Market Mean sits near $78,100, representing the average cost basis of active supply. Bitcoin’s failure to sustain levels above this point indicates that many holders remain underwater, creating resistance as they sell near break-even.
Three scenarios define the near-term outlook
A bullish scenario (around 30% probability) requires sustained ETF inflows above $500 million weekly and a break above $78,100–$80,000. A neutral scenario (40–45%) suggests continued consolidation between $73,000 and $78,000. A bearish case (~25%) could push prices back toward $72,000–$73,000 if macro conditions worsen or inflows reverse.
CONCLUSION
Bitcoin’s recent rally reflects a mix of forced liquidations and genuine demand, but on-chain data points to a market still in transition, with accumulation underway and no decisive trend reversal yet confirmed.