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TRUMP ANNONCE un ACCORD ! LE MARCHÉ DIT QU'IL MENT ?
6/10TL;DR
The announcement of a near agreement between the United States and Iran leaves markets puzzled, especially oil, which is not pricing in this political message, revealing persistent underlying tensions.
KEY POINTS
Oil situation and geopolitical tensions
Oil is trading around a valuation gap (“ferval gap”) that has not yet been broken, with a recent move above the previous weekly high. The critical $102 zone remains a potential target, while a sustained move above $100 could generate tensions. The VIX, the volatility index, shows no strong alert, indicating a market in wait-and-see mode and consolidation. A deal ending hostilities could stabilize prices, but the lack of a technical breakout suggests a bluff or prolonged uncertainty. A bullish breakout could push oil toward $115, which would be a market shock.
Dollar and eurodollar under pressure
The US dollar remains in a consolidation phase, supported by an unfilled weekly gap. EUR/USD has triggered a technical rejection of a bearish gap, suggesting a possible revisit of a pending weekly gap. For now, volatility and price indicators reflect general caution, with no sharp move taking shape.
Stock indices: accumulation and bullish anticipation
The Nasdaq recently absorbed an opening gap with a marked rebound, but the trend could return toward Monday’s low, clearing a daily gap. The Dow Jones shows strong accumulation dynamics, sweeping lows without creating a bearish gap, reflecting consolidation favorable to a coming bullish impulse. The index could move beyond its historical highs, breaking above 5200 points, after a final cleanup of weekly lows.
European indices: DAX and CAC 40 toward new highs
The DAX, after filling significant gaps, appears well positioned for a new all-time high within an intact bullish dynamic. The CAC 40 follows a similar trend, with liquidity taking supporting the possibility of a new high. However, slight hesitation around certain gaps suggests a possible corrective move or stress before this next push.
Precious metals: gold in a targeted downtrend
Gold continues a bearish dynamic, targeting a critical support around the weekly low and previous bearish gaps. Several objective zones around 4444 points could serve as inflection points, but no clear reversal is visible yet. This trend reflects investor caution amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Economic and monetary outlook
The FOMC meeting scheduled for tomorrow is expected to bring no surprises, with near certainty that interest rates will remain unchanged. Key data due Thursday, notably GDP and the PCE index, will be closely watched to adjust market expectations. The environment remains unfavorable to any abrupt rate change.
Overall sentiment and geopolitical context
Despite the optimistic announcement of an agreement with Iran, the lack of a strong bullish reaction in assets likely reflects skepticism about possible escalation or a bluff. Markets maintain a fragile balance, oscillating between expectations of resolution and caution over unresolved geopolitical risk.
CONCLUSION
Financial markets are navigating persistent geopolitical and economic uncertainty, where potential political announcements struggle to durably influence prices, especially oil. The technical and fundamental backdrop suggests prolonged consolidation before a potential return of volatility and a likely move back toward key levels in indices and commodities.