Ben Cowen: Why the BTC Bear Market Isn't Over & the Case for a Q4 Bottom | BMP Ep 11

The reason why I'm a big believer in narrative follows price and not price follows narrative in terms of the four-year cycle is Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle. The S&P 500 for a long time bottomed approximately every four years, right? You can look at this in the ' 50s, '60s, '7s, and ' 80s. Could I look back and and figure out the reason why it bottomed every four years? No, I couldn't tell you why, but it makes me think that something will happen and people will blame that. Hey everyone and welcome back to the Bitcoin Magazine podcast. I'm your host Brandon Green. Today's show we have the Dr. Benjamin Cowan from Into the Cryptoverse. He is a prolific content creator about the market as it pertains to Bitcoin. and he has very interesting views on the market uh and the cycles and how it's all kind of interplaying with each other. Uh he has a very interesting view just on what we've seen over the past four years and and two years and an interesting parallel that we saw in in 2019. And so this is a very informative conversation. I actually had a great time really getting to know him. It was my first time uh talking to him in person. So, uh, I'm very excited to share it with you. And without further ado, ladies and gentlemen, Dr. Benjamin Cowan. Welcome everybody to the Bitcoin Magazine podcast. My name is Brandon Green. I am your host. Today we have the Benjamin Cowan from Into the Cryptoverse. Uh, Ben, how you doing? >> Doing pretty well. Um, little bit tired, but for the most part, doing great. >> Yeah. Well, tired can always be a good thing. Uh, especially in in times like these. uh this kind of bumbling bare market we've been in that doesn't seem to want to make up its mind. Uh I know we can definitely talk a lot about what the the Bitcoin kind of market has been doing, but um before we get into that, I wanted to just kind of give people an introduction uh to you a little bit. Um you know, you you were obviously a posttock at Sandia, you're a NASA researcher, you started your YouTube channel about Bitcoin in 2019. um what made you sort of take that jump in and and made you go all in on Bitcoin uh you know a few years ago now? >> Yeah, I guess I got interested in in crypto back in um 2011. Uh but when I got interested in crypto, it was not cryptocurrency. It was more so cryptography, right? So my undergrad was in math and we were we had to take electives and whatnot. And so my junior year of college, I the the elective I chose was cryptography. And then through that, I learned about Bitcoin. So then over the next like two cycles, um I made all the mistakes you could possibly make. And I still make mistakes, but back then I made all the mistakes. Um, and then in 2019 after kind of learning a lot of lessons the hard way, especially with like, you know, diversifying a lot into into altcoins and whatnot and kind of seeing like the mistakes that led to and how they just bled back to Bitcoin over a long enough period of time, I like you know what like let me let me like make a YouTube channel and and talk a little bit about some of the stuff that I've learned. But it was it was all from like an academic perspective, right? because I started it again while I was doing a posttock in high energy density physics. I actually vividly remember I I was at a um a conference a high high energy density physics conference in Portland, Oregon in 2019 in June and I gave my presentation and then that night I went up into the hotel room and recorded my first YouTube video. Um and >> do you remember what it was about? First video >> some altcoin I think. I I honestly don't even know honestly. Um some some of the first videos I did were on on sort of like random thoughts in the market and then one of the reasons I didn't even talk about Bitcoin at first was because I was told it was very very bad advice but I was told that the market was already saturated with people talking about Bitcoin. Um so I should focus on other things. And so I did it first and I was like you know what this is this is complete nonsense. I mean Bitcoin is the market you know like it it leads the entire bull market. if Bitcoin's in a bare market, it takes everything down with it, you know, like it is it is the market in a lot of ways, the crypto market. So, started talking about Bitcoin and then once I did start talking about Bitcoin, that was when my channel really started to to grow. Um, and so yeah, I I I worked at uh Sandia um doing a posttock for from I guess 2018 through 2020. And then while I was doing that, I was also doing the YouTube channel. And then by 2021 I was like yeah I can't do both anymore right like I there was so much there was so much crazy stuff going on in in the markets and it was I I had just gotten promoted at my job from a posttock because I was a posttock for two years. I then became a a senior scientist at the lab but then I only worked as a senior scientist for like a month or two before quitting and then just doing this. So, you know, it's hard because I worked my entire life to get that job, but um you know, life throws you curveballs. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, and and you can always refer to yourself as Dr. Benjamin Cowan. So, you know, that's that's nice, too. Uh well, I'm curious. So, uh you know, you jumped in and basically ever since you've been publishing like eight or nine videos a week. I mean, it's it's a it's an impressive cadence. What's what's the secret behind kind of how you are able to to do so much content? What's the process? Like what have you learned kind of over the years to just like elevate to to such a uh excellent level? So I think so I've always gone back and forth in my head as to like was the was the PhD worth it, you know? Um because I mean it took five years of my life, right? Like I was working on it for five years. My PhD is in nuclear engineering. Um, and I always look back, I'm like, you know, was that really necessary? But when I think to my work ethic before grad school, it was nowhere near what it was after I had finished grad school. And so my advisor in grad school expected a lot from his students. And at the time that was really hard, you know, because you you're you're expected to publish. And when I graduated from grad school, I had over I still I mean I still have them um on Google Scholar. You know, anyone can like type in my name on Google Scholar and see the publication list. Like I had I think I had at least 10 academic journal papers before I even graduated or it was like nine or 10 and then some were accepted shortly after I graduated >> and back then. So, so my PhD was in molecular dynamic simulations of ceramics and and then complementing that with something called insitu transmission electron microscopy. So, we basically would irdiate ceramics which are used in you know different types of nuclear applications um like inside nuclear reactors among other things and then we would irdiate them and then compare it with simulations. And the the idea is that you you save money by simulating the stuff and that way you can reduce the number of experiments you have to run by figuring out through the simulations what you actually want to experiment with because this stuff's really expensive, right? Um so I was expected you know I had to take all these courses and by the way for me to do the PhD in nuclear engineering was even more difficult because my undergrad was not in nuclear engineering. My undergrad was in math and I I was two classes away from a physics major. I just ended up getting a physics minor, but then I got accepted to grad school. So I was like, there's no point in in getting those two final classes. I'll just go ahead and go to grad school. It's not going to make a difference. Um, so I had to work extra hard because I had to learn all the nuclear engineering stuff that I didn't really learn as an undergrad, you know, because that wasn't even my major. So then I was learning this new field. I was expected to publish, you know, essentially one or two p, you know, I would say on average two papers a year with the exception of the first year when you're just kind of learning stuff. And so I I had to work hard you know like I had to pass my classes I had to go through the qualifying exams I had to publish research had to present that research at conferences I feel like I was just working nonstop and so then when I went to be a posttock I I like I didn't feel like it because it was with the you know because it was at a national lab like I didn't feel that same level of like pressure I guess as that I I did as a grad And so I just had a little bit more time to to do other things. And of course that's where the YouTube stuff came from. So I feel like the reason I do it constantly is just because that is what my work ethic essentially became in grad school, you know, like I was expected to work. And the idea of not working or just not doing stuff is is like I don't like that, you know, like I don't I don't want to just retire and then do nothing for the next 40 years. So, we spent a lot of time I mean, you know, making videos is one thing, but we obviously have a platform and, you know, we're always I'm trying to add stuff to that to try to figure out if there's anything any way that we can better understand how the markets are working and then I use that to then make the make the videos. So, I guess it's just a sort of a an artifact of of the work ethic developed in grad school. >> Makes sense. I mean uh yeah and it is it is definitely true that you can do different sort of things in school that institute uh a work ethic more than anything it teaches you you know uh any any single piece of information it teaches you I did chemical engineering as my background and and it's very much the same thing there's not a lot of chem chemical engineering in in Bitcoin uh maybe a little bit in mining but uh otherwise it's all about the the systems and the processes you learn and yeah that that work ethic for sure. Well, but I do I do think engineering and just going to school in general teaches you how to think, which is a really I think a really good skill to to to learn how to to learn to have. >> Yeah. And and to be incredibly fact-based and uh you know, willing to sort of be contrarian and and like, hey, I've arrived at this conclusion and I'm going to stick with it. Uh and that's definitely something you needed early on in Bitcoin. Uh so, well, so you mentioned kind of talking about the markets and everything. So, let's let's talk about the market. Um, for those of our listeners who are less familiar with you, um, uh, which is probably few and far between at this point, but maybe give us kind of the the quick narrative. I I mean, you you talked about sort of this apathy talk, right, uh, in 2025 that we saw. Give people your sort of quick narrative of what we've seen in this cycle and we we'll say starting this cycle basically with the launch of the ETFs right before the having. Yeah, I think this cycle was mostly driven by like how do we get more money into the market rather than, you know, improving things in a lot of ways. Um, but I I I I think that a lot of it is due to tighter monetary policy. So, like Bitcoin can control what goes on with Bitcoin, but it can't control what's going on everywhere else in the market, you know, and and one of the reasons we get brutal bare markets, at least we have in the past, where Bitcoin would drop 80%, you could argue it was because people would start to misallocate their capital into into um not as great assets, right? And that was when you would see these what people call alt season, you know, where altcoins are going crazy against Bitcoin. Bitcoin would then typically punish the market for a year because people lost their way and they started speculating into things they really shouldn't, you know, that really didn't have any long-term value. I think the argument is that we've had two apathetic tops for Bitcoin throughout all of Bitcoin's history. One in 2019, which did not correspond to a four-year cycle top, right? So, we know that Bitcoin has had major tops in Q4 of 2013, Q4 2017, Q4 2021, and Q4 of 2025. And so, those were all euphoric tops except for the one in 2025. The other non-uporic top was in 2019. And the two thing and I can share my screen if you guys want to like see what I'm talking about. But the the the thing that 2019 and 2025 have in common is when Bitcoin topped there was no rotation into those higher risk assets, right? Like there was no rotation into altcoins like there were like there was after euphoric tops. And so when you have a non-uporic top as 2019 showed us, you don't really have like an immediate crash in the market, right? like it just kind of slowly goes down for a little while as interest kind of dissipates. And so the argument is that the the the sort of sort of the time frame after the 2019 top is kind of where we are now, right? Where Bitcoin topped in June of 2019, quantitative tightening ended in August. So, Bitcoin topped two months before QT ended in 2025. Bitcoin topped in October and then QT ended in December, two months before. So, also back then we had some rate cuts, but not really enough to justify a full-fledged bull market. And I think the argument for that stuff is is the reason why is Bitcoin and crypto for, you know, it's more dependent on monetary policy, right? Like it's more reactive to it. Bitcoin really likes lower rates. It really likes the money printing. really likes that stuff. And so, as recently, we've seen, you know, these energy shocks, geopolitical conflicts kind of pricing out a lot of these rate cuts. And I I think that's just sort of a it's been a macro headwind uh for Bitcoin for a while now. And so I mean I I I think that it's not like I'm looking for Bitcoin to have like an like a crazy crash, you know, like it like like you know some people are calling for, but I think it's reasonable to say look historically the bare markets last about a year, you know, and and the 2017 it was December December December 2017 to December 2018 and then the next cycle was November 2021 to November 2022. So I was just speculating, hey, maybe this is just October to October. And I guess the biggest case against that is in 2019 it didn't have to last a full year. But I still think that I think the reason why the 2019 digestion phase after the non euphoric top was as short as it was was because the bull market before that top was a lot shorter. Right? So the bull market was about 6 months and then the bare market ended up being about the same amount of time. This is a little bit longer. Right? the bull market in sort of this late business cycle environment lasted a lot longer than it did in 2019. And so that's why I think we're just going to continue to see this sort of like I don't think we're going to have all-time highs this year. I could be wrong, right? Like I absolutely could be wrong about that. But normally midterm years are are are reset years in the market and that's just where I think we are right now. Yeah, it's a very interesting thesis and you know if I were going to like uh want to dig in in one place to start, I would say you know it's interesting your framing of sort of the Bitcoin cycle versus the macro cycle. Uh and I'm curious like obviously especially early on in Bitcoin uh Bitcoin's price Bitcoin's performance was entirely guided by sort of the the micro environment of what was happening in Bitcoin at the time. And then I would I would posit that probably around the 2018 bare market, you know, beginning uh onward that equation has sort of flipped and and it seemed like in especially the 2021, you know, bull market and now also in the 2025 bull market, we seem much more driven and led by uh, you know, the macro environment and the the Bitcoin sort of uh, you know, cycle to say has it's had less of an impact, Right. Do you think that that's a fair kind of uh understanding and and would you would you say that that trend will continue and amplify moving forward? >> Basically, I think that you can have multiple four-year cycles of Bitcoin within a single business cycle, right? So the the argument for Bitcoin is you know from 2009 to 201 like 18 or so we there wasn't really any bubble like our good there wasn't really a great argument that we were in a bubble. Um and for me I the reason the way I look at that is I look at this chart it's like this business cycle chart that I've made. It's it's just essentially the S&P 500. You can see the formula down here. the S&P 500 divided by the unemployment rate squared multiplied by interest rates multiplied by the US inflation rate year-over-year normalized by the money supply. And so when you look at this, you can kind of visualize all the prior business cycles that we've had. And the only time in history where Bitcoin kind of had sort of a mini where it went through sort of a mini business cycle was back in the uh the pandemic era, like kind of going into the pandemic. And when Bitcoin topped over here in 2019 and then we went down into that pandemic induced recession, there was no rotation, right? There was no rotation from Bitcoin into into altcoins. And so what we're seeing now and what we've seen for the last several years is just a larger version of what we had, you know, back in 2018, 2019. It's just a larger version of it. So I I think right now Bitcoin is still operating it's operating within the business cycle but whether it's a coincidence or whether it's not Bitcoin keeps topping when it always tops you know and that was a that was a huge argument that people got into last year was well if everyone's calling for the four-year cycle then it won't happen right and and it won't top and and then it topped anyways you know and and that was what I was saying is like it's not like It's like every cycle people want to over complicate it and and kick the can down the road and and say, "Well, this is why it has to continue. This is why this time is different." And then Bitcoin tops anyways. And so now we're we're in sort of the same mind mindset, but on the other end of it where people are like, "Well, now, you know, Bitcoin will bottom sooner because of because it's hopped on apathy, right? Rather than euphoria." And I'm not completely unsympathetic to that view, right? I'm not. Um, but I also there's also this like part of me, a big part of me that's like, "All right, last year a lot of people didn't want to believe it was the top when it always was." And so what if later this year we end up going down into Q4 just like we always do. And I don't know what the reason would be. I don't know if it would be due to, you know, another energy shock. Maybe oil is going back up. I I don't know, inflation could be going higher. I'm not really sure. The labor market has still been holding up fine. I mean, hiring is kind of low and and job openings are low, but layoffs are also low and initial claims are are are really really low. So, it's not yet a recessionary environment. And so, I think that'll be maybe that'll be the next scare is is people might be worried more about that later this year. And if they are, it could make it difficult to buy Bitcoin if people are worried about that. But well, I think there's a good chance that Bitcoin would probably at least for a while just bottom anyways, you know, and and and I think Bitcoin maybe has a way of pricing that stuff in, like pricing the macro stuff in before it's obvious, you know, to everyone else. >> Well, you know what's what's interesting about that is um if I were just going to like think back and check me on some of this, obviously this is going from memory, but if I think back to both the 2022 and the 20 2018 cycles in the bare market when you had those sort of like extra jack knife down moments, right? In in 2022, you had one around the um US uh uh you know, the the sort of anchor token and then you had the second one around FTX. In uh 2018, I remember we were steady at like 6,500 or 6,000. and Novagrats was on CNBC saying we're not going to go any lower and we bottomed and then come, you know, November, December, we jack knifed down again. I don't think that that was necessarily related to anything like public uh like I I don't think anything broke necessarily in the the crypto market or in the macro market per se, although there was sort of like a stock downturn uh right around the the 2018 kind of extra leg down. And then I think about this past cycle, right, uh, in earlier in 2026 where we kind of jack knifed from like 90k down to 60k and that I mean now I'm having to really think back and question, but that didn't really correlate with a macro much of anything rather than just sort of a general fear and consternation around the market. And then if anything, we bottomed right when the Iran can uh conflict bubbled up. Um right and you know on the other side of that we've actually stro shown strength in the sort of high oil prices and and some of the >> things that are miring the rest of the economy right now. So, I'm curious if if you would agree or if you would push back on like whether it's like it's almost the sort of Bitcoin and crypto market centric things that create the driving price action in the bare market whereas the macro backdrop just becomes a general trend. Uh or whether you know you think that that's going to change upcoming like how do you look at that? >> I think for now you're right. I mean, I I think narrative follows price for for for Bitcoin in a lot of ways. Like, we could look back at every prior downturn in the market in, you know, in 2022, FTX, Luna, Celsius, I mean, all these things that went down and say, well, that's the reason why it went down. And in 2018, we could look at, you know, the the ICO craze and and why that, you know, had to lead to a sort of a correction in the markets. And in, you know, we could go back and do that every single bare market, but the point is is it just always happens. Like it just, you know, perhaps it perhaps we look for narratives to explain why things are happening, but it just seems to happen either way. And the the reason why I'm a big believer in narrative follows price and not price follows narrative in terms of the four-ear cycle is Bitcoin does not have a monopoly on the four-year cycle. The S&P 500 for a long time bottomed approximately every four years, right? You can look at this in the 50s, 60s,7s, and 80s. You'll find major lows in the stock market in like 1958, 1962, 66,74,78 and 82. Every four years, basically on the nose, the stock market would bottom. Could I tell you why now? Like, could I look back and and figure out the reason why it bottomed every four years? No, I couldn't tell you why. But it it makes me think that something will happen and people will blame that. But see, here's the here's the reason why I don't believe that narrative follows price. Think back to, you know, when the ETF launched, right? You talked about that earlier. And after the ETF launched for Bitcoin, everyone was like, "All right, well, this is, you know, there was mixed feelings. Some people thought it was a top. Some people thought like we would continue to go up." We obviously continue to go up. And people then said, "Well, it's because of the ETF." And then we had the same thing happen for Ethereum when the Ethereum ETF launched and it marked the top for a long time, you know, and so then people stopped talking about the ETF and then they they then started focusing on the macro. They're like, well, this is the reason why Ethereum is not going up. So had Ethereum gone up after the ETF launched, then people would have believed that the narrative was due to the ETF, but then that didn't happen and so people sort of shifted gears. Um, I I agree that like Bitcoin has shown strength since February, but it also showed strength in when the Russ Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022. Bitcoin found a low in January and then it rallied for a couple of months and then it still then sold off into the summer. Um, in 2018, you're right, Bitcoin found support at around 6K. It found support in April or sorry in February of 2018 at around 6K. It bounced and then in April it put in a higher low at around 6,400. That's exactly what we just did. Just 10x higher, right? Like we we we found a low at at 60k and then we found a higher low at around 64 65,000 and then back then Bitcoin bounced and it went up into May and then it still sold off into the summer. It went back, it basically went back down to 6K, held that level until, as you said, you know, until November or whatever, end of the year, and then we got another correction in the stock market. So, I could see history repeating itself, honestly, because back in 2018, we we had the same president, you know, and and back then what happened was we had a we had a correction in the market in the very beginning of the year in Q1. And then we had another correction in the market in like the second half of the year. And it was the second correction in the market that caused Bitcoin to go below $6,000, right? It was the second correction. I shouldn't say caused it but because again if if narrative falls price but it corresponded to that second correction in the stock market. So I think the argument is that if Bitcoin is going to go lower as the year goes on or at least retest the lows, you know, it probably would be due to it probably also correspond to to weakness over in uh the stock market. So, I mean, I could see history just simply repeating itself and, you know, sort of a a correction of the stock market leads to a a slightly lower price by Bitcoin as we go later into the year and then we kind of reset and then maybe by the end of the year, perhaps we do start to get some bad macro data, but maybe Bitcoin's already priced it in at that point, right? like and and that's kind of the argument is that Bitcoin prices things in ahead of time in a lot of ways, right? Like Bitcoin had already dropped 50% by the time this, you know, conflict with uh the United States and Iran broke out, right? Like it's not like it had been strong going into it, it sold off ahead of it and then once the conflict happened started, then Bitcoin rallied. So, if Bitcoin does dump going into the summer or going into October, it there might not be a headline that it's necessarily like dumping because of, but perhaps the headline will become obvious if Bitcoin puts in a low in the fourth quarter. And people then make the same mistake. They then think, "All right, well, it's going to go lower." And then it doesn't because it already it already priced it at. >> Yeah, it's a really interesting theory. You know, I was just checking uh um when in 2018 did the actual back half dump happened. >> It happened in uh mid November. >> Well, for Bitcoin for Bitcoin it did, but the stock market I think topped in September. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Um and then yeah, there was sort of a drawback. So, but I I would wonder if you know, again, I'm having to string together a whole bunch of memories, but that was like a week after the midterms um that it that it dumped. And so, you know, if we were going to pre-craft the narrative of if there was going to be an upcoming dump, it would need to be in October before the midterms, right? Uh to kind of >> uh uh equal the the sort of one to one year-long bare market. I wonder if you know we would see then uh a bottom form in October >> and then the midterms come and maybe this is a signal that the midterms will be a good outcome for Bitcoin uh and will help sort of put in the bottom uh and and you know you would see it sort of pump out of it. Uh just a a curious, you know, if if narrative follows price, then you know, perhaps perhaps if you know what the narratives are going to be, then then you could uh invert that a little bit, but you know, that would more be a proof that we're in a simulation uh more than anything. But >> yeah, no, I mean, I think you could argue so so I think markets hate uncertainty, right? Bitcoin, crypto markets especially hate uncertainty. And there's been no shortage of uncertainty recently if we're being honest, right? there's been a lot of uncertainty uh navigating these markets and you could almost argue that in the short term people might view and I look I'm not trying to get into politics right this is but this is more of a a data and I actually we actually just we we we just posted some more political charts on our platform not to say that like this is you know who you should vote for or anything like that but just see how the market performs under various combinations of like Republican versus Democratic presidents and then like who controls Congress Right. So, the markets tend to do pretty well um under Republican sweeps and Democratic sweeps, like where they own just the whole thing. One of the worst combinations, I think the worst outcome for markets is a Republican president with a split Congress historically. >> So, it's actually better historically if you have a Republican president, I think, and the Democrats control all of Congress, as crazy as that sounds. Um, but I do wonder if if people might get spooked that perhaps the Republicans will lose control of, you know, part of Congress and maybe we'll go back to people thinking that there'll actually be repercussions for doing certain things uh in in the markets. I mean, I again, not to get political, but in 2025, it felt like everyone was launching meme coins. And I'm just like, oh my gosh, like when when can we go back to a time when people took this asset class seriously? Um, and so I would almost argue that that might even help people to take the asset class a little bit more seriously if we kind of remind ourselves what's important here, right? And in crypto, the most important thing is Bitcoin. Without Bitcoin, crypto wouldn't be here. And a lot of people I've seen a lot of critics of Bitcoin say that like Bitcoin is is like the AOL of the internet where it's like the first one but it'll be replaced by something else. But I really don't think that's true, right? Like I really don't think that's true. I think that if if other cryptocurrencies survive or for them to even have a tiny tiny tiny percent chance to survive, Bitcoin has to survive. If Bitcoin does not survive, then all the other stuff goes to zero. all the other stuff could already go to zero even if Bitcoin does survive, right? So, I I think that's like where I am on on that. Um, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is I I think Bitcoin might actually benefit a lot from a little bit more um certainty in the markets where you kind of have like the checks and balances of government, which isn't really it can't really happen when you have a sweep of of one party or the other, right? So when you know when when Democrats were in power a lot of the fear back then was you know choke operation choke point right like they're going after all the I mean I mean they were going after everyone right I mean every all the exchanges and it almost felt like maybe not all the exchanges but it almost felt like to me that the people they were going after were actually mostly good actors and it's like the people that they missed were the bad actors you know which was really frustrating for as for investors you know because it's like how how could they miss what was going on with FTX, but they're focused on all these other people and they just they come and that goes to show you that usually the bare market, if you want to assign a narrative, it's it's it comes out of left field. It's not what most people are thinking. I I I I've never you I never used FTX. Um, but I also didn't think they were about to collapse, you know, like if you'd asked me in the summer of 2022, what is an exchange is going to collapse? Guess which one it's going to be. I don't think I would have thought it was FTX, you know. Um, now that's not true for everyone. Some people did express concerns about FTX and and you know, props to them for doing so, but I I do think that um that that it is really hard to know ahead of time. I I would argue, and I've actually said this before, I I would argue that Bitcoin could bottom before the midterms this year, and then when the midterms happen, people might get spooked because now they're worried about, oh, well, that's not as good for crypto. But if you think about it, on January 20th, 2025, Bitcoin was at 109K when the new administration took office. Today it's at like 80K. You know, like the market has kind of spoken in a way. So, you could almost argue that sometimes what seems bullish is actually bearish and the things that kind of seem bearish might actually be bullish. So, I would actually be in the camp that if Bitcoin is putting it a low in October and people are worried about the midterms, I would say it might actually be a bullish thing even though people might assume it's bearish. >> Yeah. No, I I uh if your narrative follows price, you know, kind of thesis uh is is true, then um it almost necessitates that being the case. Uh assuming that, you know, we hit a bottom in October. So, >> uh it'll be a very interesting one to watch. Uh for sure. And so, you know, I want to dig in now a little bit to you had mentioned a little earlier that you're um you're sort of sympathetic to this idea that there there are things happening in the market that could make this time different, right? Uh and I want to get into some of those uh especially as it pertains to like the the macro backdrop. So, you mentioned for instance quantitative tightening ended in December. uh we're going to get a new Fed chair this month. Um and and so I'm curious like from a macro sense uh from a monetary policy sense um what do you see kind of coming down the pipe and and how are you kind of factoring that into your outlook on Bitcoin? >> I think the argument is if you don't have a euphoric top, why do you have to have a brutal bare market? You know, because most euphoric tops, you have a lot of new retail investors coming in and so when the market drops at all, they get spooked and they panic sell and then that kind of has, you know, sort of leads to the year-long bare market. It's like a timebased capitulation, right? Like where people just give up. And I think that everyone invested in Bitcoin right now, not everyone, but most people invested in Bitcoin right now were probably also invested in it four years ago, right? Like they were probably also here in 2021. It's not true of everyone because the ETFs, but I track the social metrics. Like I I track like people who are looking at at at crypto YouTube and and crypto Twitter and all of that stuff has been generally trending down since 2021. So that's like a crazy thing to think about is like all right well despite all the new things that have happened in crypto despite the ETFs despite you know the president of the United States talking about Bitcoin and whatnot we've actually seen declining social interest. Um so let me let me share this chart and maybe you guys can can see it. Um, so, so, so this chart right here shows the orange line is is social interest in in in Bitcoin and it it's just been trending down since 2021, right? Like you can see like this was a a non-uporic top and we did not go back up sort of like these euphoric levels and we've just been seeing it go down. And so the argument is is like, well, why does it have to be as brutal of a bare market when you don't really have a lot of new retail investors? You know, could it be not as bad? But the the reason why I push back against that is because Bitcoin already shows diminishing losses from one cycle to another, right? Like if you look at Bitcoin through the cycles, and let me switch this over to a a monthly view. Um, if I can get this to load. Uh, but what I'm what I want to show essentially is well, this is gold. So, here we go. So, here here's Bitcoin. And if you look at through the cycles, so if we kind of go through each bare market, you know, the one in 2013 was about an 87% drop. The one in sorry, 2014, the 2018 bare market was an 84% drop. And then the last bare market was about 77. you know, so we're already seeing diminishing losses from one cycle to another. And so here we are. We're already looking at a 50% drop. Is that enough? I I think you will likely see it go a little bit lower. But the biggest counterpoint to that, and one of the reasons why I'm not completely unsympathetic to the view is if you look at the 2019 move, it was about a 50% drop before Bitcoin started to rally out of that drop. Now, back then we had the the the pandemic and unfortunately we don't know what would have happened had we not had the pandemic. Like what would Bitcoin have done in that environment? We can't know. It's not like we can go over to a parallel universe where there wasn't a pandemic and see what price action would have looked like. But at the end of the day, if you truly believe that narrative follows price, right? Like if you truly believe it and even in black swan scenarios, right? If you truly believe it, then you could say, well, back then, even in the 2019 scenario, Bitcoin dropped still about 70% from the highs. So, my argument is that a 70% drop from the highs would put Bitcoin around 40K, a little bit lower than 40K. And the reason why that seems like it could happen, one of the reasons is if you look at things like the balance price and the um uh what else? So if you look at like the balance price and the realized price, historically, Bitcoin bottoms below both goes below both of them in the bare market, right? So in in 2011, you can see that Bitcoin went below the realized price and then the balance price and and then in 2015, 2014, 2015, it first went below the realized price, then it went below the bounce price. And then in 2018, same thing, right? It went below the realized price and then it went below the bounce price. Even in 2020 with the pandemic, guess what? It went below the realized price and the balance price. And then it did the same thing in 2022. Below the realized price and then the balance price. This I know it doesn't look like it went below the balance price, but it did on the wick now, right? Like we went to 14K, but the daily close was like higher than that. Was like above 15K, I believe. Um or sorry, no, we didn't go to 14K. We went to what 15 point something, but it was below the bounce price. The balance price back then was 15.65K and I think we went like a few hundred dollars below it. So technically speaking, every bare market, Bitcoin has gone below the realized price and the balance price. And and it hasn't done that yet, right? like it just hasn't and I think there's a good chance that it will. And then the other thing that Bitcoin likes to do in bare markets is the supply and profit or loss tends to cross, right? So every bare market they they they tend to cross and and that hasn't happened yet. Um and normally you start looking for bottoms in the market after they cross, not before. Historically the bottom has occurred after these two metrics cross. The one thing I'd keep an eye on is that 2019 comparison, right? Because when you look at this 2019 move, like after this non-uporic top right here and how Bitcoin went down, if you compare the current bare market to that to that period, we can look at that and see that it's it's actually tracking it pretty closely um so far through 2025. So, I think that's the biggest counterpoint. But the reason why I have a hard time getting past that is because even in that scenario, Bitcoin still eventually went lower due to a pandemic, right? I'm not calling for a pandemic, but I'm saying that doesn't mean there won't be something in the second half of the year that then people blame, you know? Well, and it goes back to your your overall point, which is that, you know, macro macro decides everything at the end of the day. And macro is >> more unpredictable than, you know, anything that Bitcoin in it in and of itself can sort of uh uh create or do or or act like. Um, >> right. >> So, it makes sense. Well, well, so, okay. So, uh it's a very interesting sort of comparison on the on the charts and um you know different behaviors that we've seen throughout time. I am curious like do you do you see anything in the macro sense right now that um is is catching your eye um and and making you like really underwrite where you see Bitcoin going uh because you know you mentioned you're you're sympathetic. I also want to talk about Bitcoin treasury companies. I don't know if this is the right place to to layer that in as well, but >> um you know, you you keep saying sort of you're sympathetic to the folks who are like this could be the bottom. Uh is there is there a macro reason for that or is it more kind of just a general the the apathetic top leads to sort of a lesser bare market? >> Well, you could argue that if you have a new because I mean I went on stage at Bitcoin Amsterdam back in November, said we were in a bare market, right? and said that we would face macro headwinds at least for the first half of 2026 and that maybe that would change after we have a new Fed chair. The problem is Kevin Worsh, he's only one person on the committee, right? Like he can't just unilaterally cut rates to whatever he wants it to be. He's got to get the approval of other members on the board. And I I'm not saying he can't eventually get that, but I think that he probably won't be able to get that when he first gets into office. Okay? And one of the reasons is because of the energy shock that we're experiencing right now. If it were not for the energy shock, it'd be a lot easier to cut rates, right? I mean, it'd be a lot easier to cut rates. I mean, they're kind of they're kind of shooting themselves in the foot to some degree because like they want lower rates, but also at the same time, we have this energy crisis that how can you cut rates into the energy crisis? The labor market, you could justify cutting rates. I I mean, even though layoffs are low um and initial claims are low, I think there's enough weakness in sort of other parts of the market, like in hiring and and job openings, that kind of stuff, that would merit maybe cutting rates another 25 or 50 basis points. I don't think the labor market I I think that would actually help the labor market. And again, you don't want to cause a recession before you cut rates, right? The whole point is to cut rates before you go into a recession. The problem is in a late business cycle environment when oil is spiking because of a supply issue and not a demand issue. That's usually the beginning of the end of the business cycle because then it it sort of leads to the Fed being checkmated where they want to lower rates but they can't because of this energy crisis that's leading to inflation going back up. Well, and I'm I'm no I'm no macroeconomist, you know, sort of expert. But, you know, the the basic idea of the Fed is it's supposed to maintain, you know, low unemployment and stable prices, right? Like that's its dual mandate. Um, and you know, you mentioned like oil prices being high due to a supply issue versus a demand issue. I can understand why, you know, you can't lower rates if oil prices are high due due to a demand issue. But if if everyone kind of understands that oil prices are high because of a supply issue and it's, you know, general energy prices that are high because of supply disruptions, doesn't that almost necessitate sort of a a reunderwiting of like an infrastructure buildout? And wouldn't that require lower rates? And you know, why why is that such a you know, it almost feels like the headline number there is preventing any sort of like further digging into what actual good policy might look like that world? >> Yeah. I mean I mean like I said I feel like we're shooting ourselves in the foot because ideally we would be cutting rates right now. Like that I think would make sense. Um, but the problem here is we don't know when the supply constru we don't know when that's going to actually resolve itself, you know, and I I think the markets are having a hard time, you know, trusting like, okay, is this conflict going to just be like is it going to be over now or is it going to take a couple of years, you know, like I don't know. I have no idea. I'm not a geopolitical expert. Um, I can assure you that. And so I don't know. Like I don't know. And I I think with with inflation if it if it lasts longer than people because oil is not the only thing going up now. I mean you're also seeing like food food prices going up too. Um what could happen is a repeat of the of the late 90s. So in the late 90s the Fed lowered rates and they realized they lowered them prematurely. And so what could happen, the reason why I think the Fed is and and why Powell is is resistant to lowering rates is because if they lower rates too soon, it could actually rekindle the animal spirits, right? And and then that could lead to an even bigger crash later on. And so I think that that is what they want to avoid. So what happened in in the '9s for people that are that that were I wasn't trading back then, I mean I was in 2000, I was 10 years old, you know. Um, so but in in 1990 or sorry in the in the mid to late '90s the Fed was cutting rates and then in I think like 198 1998 1999 the Fed actually realized they had I guess essentially rekindled the animal spirits. You were starting to see inflation go back up and they ended up having to raise rates for a while and it was the raising of rates in that late business cycle environment that eventually popped the bubble. Right? That's what actually popped. That was one of the things that popped a bubble bubble. They had to raise rates. So, I don't want that to happen. Like I I I would much prefer them not raise rates. But the issue is if they were to cut rates, like let's say they do what you say and they cut rates and let's say they cut, you know, 100 basis points or something. The issue is they might look back in a year and realize that they were too aggressive and then they might have to do the unthinkable and that would be to raise rates all the way back up and then think about how demoralizing that would be for the crypto markets you know if I mean imagine if they had to raise rates back up to 5%. That would not be good for you know for the crypto markets more than likely in the short term. I think I think Bitcoin would survive. I'm not saying that Bitcoin wouldn't survive it. I think Bitcoin has survived a lot worse. I just think that a lot of the other stuff in the industry would not survive. And and you know, as far as treasury companies, because you mentioned treasury companies, I will say this, and I this might be a controversial take, but I've never shied away from controversial takes. I think everything in the industry, no matter what it is, eventually bleeds to Bitcoin. So, initially, altcoins bled to Bitcoin, and they still do, right? They all bleed to Bitcoin over long enough period of time. and they might outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles, but over the macro scale, they basically all just bleed to Bitcoin. Crypto company stock, like you know, look, think about like exchange stocks, um, or just any any company that has these like cryp it's mainly cryptoreated. Eventually, over a longer period of time, the stock bleeds to Bitcoin. Okay, the miners, all of the Bitcoin miners eventually bleed to Bitcoin. The ones that are doing the best against Bitcoin are the ones that actually pivoted away from Bitcoin and pivoted over to like AI stuff. those are the ones that are not bleeding to Bitcoin right now uh as much. So my argument is this. If everything else eventually if everything else in crypto bleeds to Bitcoin, then my guess is that eventually over a long enough period of time the treasury companies will also bleed to Bitcoin. And so the argument >> when you say bleed to Bitcoin, you mean kind of to to the Bitcoin denominated price of those assets will eventually you'll see a massive decrease, >> right? So like you can always have a couple of cycles where that asset outperforms Bitcoin and we've seen that. I mean plenty of altcoins outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles. Treasury companies have been able to outperform Bitcoin for one or two cycles. But I think that narrative is going to shift. I I think that as we continue on, I I think you'll see the the treasury companies underperform Bitcoin in future cycles. And it's just going to be kind of a reminder to everyone here that Bitcoin represents the best of the cryptoverse. like it represents the best of it and every other product out there in a lot of ways like every other way to buy like you know if you want to launch a memecoin or an altcoin or whatever it may be every other thing eventually just bleeds to the thing that brought us here in the first place. So when you think about that, like it's it's hard to be overly diversified in the crypto industry when you just kind of realize that the Satoshi value of your portfolio goes down the more diversified that you are over a long enough period of time. Again, that doesn't mean you can't make money trading other things. Like I I have like I I've bought Ethereum before. like I've bought uh miners and that kind of it's not like I've never bought it, you know, but that doesn't change the fact that over a long enough period of time I I think that it just bleeds back to to the king. >> Yeah. Well, that that makes sense. And um you know there's something very Austrian in that sort of understanding of the market too where if you if you view Bitcoin as just sort of the market uh then you know any single entity can only outperform the market for so long and then eventually you know the market wins. So, right, >> it does make sense. >> Um, but of course there will be exceptions. You know, the um the ETFs for instance, like I guess technically they will bleed to Bitcoin because of the fees they take, but right >> uh at the same time they're mostly going to track with the Bitcoin price. Um, you know, you might see some of these treasury companies manage to effectively track one to one for the with the Bitcoin price moving forward if they can't do anything to uh accumulate Bitcoin that doesn't involve sort of issuing more shares at a premium to to buy the underlying, right? You know, that I think that you I agree with you generally that some of these some of these things we've seen uh as trends over the past two years are probably going to go away moving forward. Um, and and you know, you're going to have to find a different way to sort of outperform Bitcoin. Um, but but it is an interesting take. Uh, it's it's a very interesting take. >> Well, so I I want to I know we've got like just a few more minutes left. Um, I also want to kind of talk about like how you see the the market playing out beyond 2026, you know, beyond assuming we're going to bottom at some point, right? over the next call it six to 12 months you know in a very conservative case do you see Bitcoin fundamentally going on and performing as it has in the past do you see sort of a new behavior emerging uh uh what are the what are the broader trends you see it intersecting with AI you know energy buildout uh etc like how do you kind of just view Bitcoin from that really macro lens >> yeah I think I'm looking at a sort of a secondary correction in the stock market later this year that will likely correspond to Bitcoin going lower. Um, from that point I think it look I could be wrong, right? So, but let's let's assume I'm right for a minute, right? Let's just assume that Bitcoin finds a low in October. Even though it might not, but let's just assume it does. If we're sitting here and Bitcoin's trading at like, you know, like below at a new low in October, it's going to be really scary to want to buy then because think about what would have to be happening for people to like be rationalizing why Bitcoin is trading at those prices, you know? Um, I think it's going be hard, but I think it's going to be one of those things where it's like the best thing to do is just buy it and ask questions later, right? So, like if the macro looks bad, I think it'll be hard to buy a risk asset like Bitcoin. But then when you think back to like, okay, well, it actually just went through a year-long bare market. Maybe it's already priced in. So, the way I think the next cycle is going to be tricky because we're also going to be contending with the end of the business cycle and the next fouryear cycle for Bitcoin. And if you think about the last one, the last one that we had was sort of a mini one and it ended when Trump was president in 2020 with the crisis, right? It ended with the crisis of the pandemic and then that started a new business cycle. So I think you will have that at some point. Ideally, that crisis would be this year because then it would it would nicely line up with a four-year cycle low and then we could just go on into a new bull market, a new business cycle. That would be my dream scenario, right? Because it would just make it so much easier. If that doesn't happen, you know, like if if that doesn't happen, then it's going to make the next cycle a little trickier because then we still have to contend with potentially the end of the business cycle that it could could occur. Um, but I I think that, you know, the runway on that could still be a while, right? And that's the that's the hard part about business cycles is like no one knows how long they're going to play out. I mean, people have been calling it for a recession forever. I mean, even even I mean, not not only since 2022. I mean, obviously, we had one in 2020, but I even remember in 2014, 2015, everyone was worried about a recession, right? Um, it was also a lot of discussion in in 2018. So, like you I think you will have a recession at the end of the business cycle. And the reason I say that is because every business cycle past ends with a recession. But for crypto, you could argue that if you have a recession, that would actually be a good thing for the things that can survive because what a recession would do it was it was it would usher in looser monetary policy, you know, um which crypto thrives on. So I I think right now my my base case is Bitcoin finds a low in Q4. I don't know exactly when, but if you made me guess, I'd say October. Just keep it simple. a year from the top and then we rally off of that low for a while and and then we'll have to see how the macro unfolds from there. And I, you know, is beyond that I can't really say like it's so far off in the in the distance that it's it's hard to say. But I think that it's it's I think it's unlikely that Bitcoin puts in alltime highs this year. But I I could see it happening again in the next cycle as long as the macro holds up. And and I I mean I look at the macro a lot and I mean for now the labor market seems seems fine. It's just that when you get draw downs in the stock market, that's what could lead to the sort of the feedback the negative feedback loop uh that could occur in the labor market leading to lower demand which leads to more layoffs which leads to lower demand. We're not at that point like we're not in that feedback loop right now and as far as I can tell we're still a little ways off from that from that feedback loop. Um but for now those are my thoughts. Find a low later this year in the second half and then from there rally and then we'll see what happens uh in 2027 with a macro. Do you have a ultimate thesis around Bitcoin? You know, outside of even price action of just, you know, what's its comparable asset class? What's its TAM? You know, what is that ultimate sort of market cap or value look like for Bitcoin >> or are you are you mostly constrained to these sort of cyclical views on it? >> I mean, I think it operates as like a leveraged version of the NASDAQ in a lot of ways. It's more sensitive to monetary policy. Um, like if you think about why Bitcoin drops like 70 or 80% in bare markets, it's because it completely outperformed the NASDAQ in the bull market. You know, like this past cycle, like Bitcoin's down 50% from the highs and so and the NASDAQ is not, but if you measure it from the low, Bitcoin is still up more than the NASDAQ from 2022. So I I mean I think Bitcoin kind of represents a way out of the financial system that we that we were unfortunately find ourselves in. And I I think that's like a really long-term bullish thing. The only issue is that while it is long-term bullish, Bitcoin is still subject to, you know, monetary policy and these macroeconomic constraints that it cannot control. So, I think Bitcoin will eventually go to a million, but I think it's going to take a lot longer than what a lot of people think. You know, like I don't think it's going to happen next cycle or the cycle after that or even the cycle after that. I think it's going to take until probably at least the 2040s, you know, to to potentially see those kind of valuations. Um, and the reason it's going to take that long is because I think you will have sort of an uh an economic reset, like a recession sometime between now and then, which will then delay things. It'll it'll then take, you know, that means it'll take another cycle or two just to get back up to where we were, and then it'll take another cycle or two to, you know, to compound off of that, which is why I see it taking longer than than than people think. But yeah, I mean I look the reason I got into Bitcoin in the first place was also kind of seeing back in 2011 what happened with the financial crisis and just being like you know this is completely ridiculous that we're just going to bail all these people out and we're just going to print our problems away and you know like and and to know that my dollars are going to be worth less tomorrow than today like maybe want to put it somewhere. I was already putting it in the stock market but you know Bitcoin offered I thought a viable solution like I've always been really bullish on Bitcoin. If I wasn't bullish on Bitcoin, I wouldn't have started a a YouTube channel centered around it. Like people say that I'm bearish on it, but you know, it's just that Bitcoin goes through bare markets, and that's not a bad thing. Everything goes through bare markets, right? Like, gold goes through bare markets. The S&P goes through bare markets. Even the QQQ, the NASDAQ, it all goes through bare markets. That doesn't mean that the technology is bad. It just means that we go through bare markets for reasons that are outside of our control. And I right now in midterm years, it's just normally it's a fairly safe bet to assume Bitcoin's in a bare market in the midterm year. That doesn't make me a perma bear. It just makes me somewhat realistic about what to expect Bitcoin to do this year. >> Makes total sense. Well, I think that's a a pretty great place to sort of end it. Ben, uh before we jump, do you have any sort of last thoughts or last comments um before we wrap it? >> Look, I mean, over the long haul, the bears sound smart and the bulls make money. is how the markets work, right? And I I always remind myself of that. So, you know, and you could say that might maybe applies to now. Maybe I'm being too bearish and and I need to I need to wake up. But if if the market does go lower this year, the bears are going to sound really smart and and it might be really hard to buy. But I I would say, you know, the the the richest people on the in the world are are not the people that were short selling anything. you know, the the people that were bullish on stuff and, you know, build out companies. We're betting for things, not against things. Um, so over the long haul, it it pays to be a bull, but I think it's okay to to be bearish in some environments, but just make sure that you don't get tunnel vision and lose the the larger picture. >> Yeah. Uh don't don't end up uh watching the next bull market pass you by while you've, you know, uh lived inside of the bare narrative for too long. Well, Ben, I I think that this is a really good sort of um I I think this is a comfortable conversation, frankly, around, you know, what we're seeing in the bare market and uh you know, this is obviously not your first Bitcoin winter. It's not mine. Uh and and so a lot of what you talk about just uh intuitively sort of checks out with with where we are and the sentiment and uh you know, it's a very level levelheaded take. Uh so I I really appreciate you kind of walking our audience through it. Um I of course you know you have a phenomenal platform you've built over the years uh in into the cryptoverse. Uh truly impressed with with kind of everything that you've done there and really honored to have you on. So I'm sure this is the the first of many conversations we'll have and really appreciate you taking the time. >> Yeah, it was a pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me and I look forward to seeing you next