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The Post-Subsidy World | Bitcoin 2026

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BTCBitcoin MagazineMay 10, 2026 at 01:21 AM27:47
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TL;DR

The scheduled reduction of Bitcoin mining rewards is raising growing concerns about the network’s future security.

KEY POINTS

Increasing reliance on transaction fees

Miner compensation relies on two sources: monetary issuance and fees. The former is rapidly declining, with a 96% drop in the early years, long before the theoretical 2140 endpoint. Ultimately, network security will depend almost entirely on fees, raising the question of whether demand will be sufficient.

A direct risk to network security

The security budget corresponds to miner revenue and thus the computational power committed. If revenue falls, resistance to attacks mechanically decreases. The more Bitcoin gains in value, the more attractive a target it becomes, paradoxically requiring a higher security budget.

Perceived insufficient network usage

Activity on the blockchain remains limited, with some blocks not fully filled. The last significant fee spikes were linked to Ordinals usage between 2023 and 2024, which were widely criticized. Without mass adoption for payments or other uses, fee-based revenue remains low.

Capacity limits hinder use cases

The fixed block space limit prevents the sustained emergence of new use cases. Any successful application ends up pricing itself out due to rising costs. This affects both solutions like Lightning and experimental protocols or attempts at decentralized finance.

Technical evolution constrained by governance

Many proposals to improve functionality or develop second-layer solutions require protocol changes. However, the community largely resists controversial changes. The last major upgrade, Taproot, took nearly 46 months to activate, illustrating this inertia.

The quantum factor and vulnerable coins

Around 1.7 million bitcoins remain vulnerable to a quantum computer attack. An actor could theoretically recover them within hours. Solutions like the Hourglass project aim to spread their release over 32 years, while potentially generating significant fees for miners.

A fee race in case of attack

The proposed mechanism would create competition among attackers, each outbidding the other in fees to recover these funds. This could ensure up to 1 BTC in fees per block, temporarily strengthening the security budget. However, this model depends on the actual existence of a quantum threat.

Near-unanimous rejection of permanent inflation

The idea of continuous issuance, inspired by Monero, is widely rejected. It would challenge the 21 million bitcoin cap, a core pillar of its value proposition. Moreover, Monero’s example shows that this mechanism does not prevent 51% attacks.

CONCLUSION

As rewards inevitably decline, Bitcoin’s future will depend on its ability to generate sufficient activity and fees, with no clear consensus yet on the path forward.

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