Paper Bitcoin Summer or Self Custody Spring? | Bitcoin 2026

Yo, how's everybody doing? Hello, Las Vegas. Genesis stage uh right after lunch. I hope everyone had a good lunch. But um it's been quite interesting in in Bitcoin and I have these gentlemen. We're all self-custody maxis. So, I think this panel is going to go one way. Uh but very kind of interesting moment in Bitcoin's history where Bitcoin essentially got financialized with the launch of the ETF. And it's not just Black Rockck anymore. You have banks launching ETFs. You have a lot of traditional finance launching products on top of Bitcoin. So, it's never been easier to get exposure to Bitcoin than it is now through the traditional financial system. The problem is, and as we all know here, um that's paper Bitcoin. I'm a true believer that if it's not Bitcoin in self-custody, it's not actual Bitcoin. It's an IOU. and it doesn't come with the sovereignty aspects of holding Bitcoin in self- custody. So, one of the things that worries me the most is for the first time in Bitcoin's history, the amount of people that are actually taking self-custody of their coins since the launch of the ETF has actually gone down. And this revolution because it is a it is a financial revolution. It is a peaceful revolution does not work unless individuals are taking self-custody of their Bitcoin. They're sacrificing their sovereignty by doing that and also they're creating a situation where paper Bitcoin can arise. Right? So that's what I want to focus on today's panel. the positives of taking Bitcoin into self- custody and is this going to be an acceleration of more paper Bitcoin of more captured Bitcoin if you want to spice it up a little bit or are people going to remember if something blows up how important self-custody is. So I'm going to start with D's with Coin Kite. They make incredible hardware wallets. Uh D, I mean you focus on this man. you focus, you dedicate your life into getting people to, you know, choose the right hardware to take self-custody of their coins. I'm sure you've seen exactly what I've seen, right? The focus has been on traditional finance entering into the Bitcoin space. It seems like the revolutionary appeal dissipated a little bit. Like the big breaking news was the ETF. The big breaking news are the politicians. The big breaking news are the financial institutions getting into Bitcoin. It's no longer, oh my god, fix the money, fix the world. It's like, fix the money, fix the world, but buy my ETF. So, what's your take to you? >> Yeah. Um, personally, you know, I I work for a self-custody hard wall company, so obviously I'm going to be a little more pro- self-custody. Um, I think it's it's tough, right? Because everyone has their uh, you know, benefits, right? it people people want the ETF because it's easy uh and they think that self-custody is just so far out there now and it's so hard that I can just buy it in my stock portfolio and I'm good. Um but I think we are kind of taking the soul out of Bitcoin a little bit. We're taking those sovereignty properties uh away, right? Um they think that it's just a number go up technology and that uh that's that's all they care about, right? It's the pristine collateral of the future. It doesn't matter if I hold it. uh it it just goes up in my in my ledger here. So so I'm good. Um but I think as we've seen in the past there has been uh you know like FTX, Celsius, Mount Gaus uh all those all those exchanges have collapsed and uh that that Bitcoin is not yours really. Uh even though you may think that you have some uh redemption towards it, it's it's not really yours. Uh and the fine print is always the the kicker here. And uh you know I it it's it's a tough one because like we were saying the tax advantages, the IAS, the tax deferments, whatever. Um but I I definitely think having self-custody of at least some Bitcoin is beneficial to everyone. And I think over time we c if we can get more people to self- custody would be great. Um, but I understand why people are moving towards these more uh financial institutions that are or financial instruments that are already embedded into the system that we have now. And it's how do we how do we get back to what it used to be? I I think that's a that's a good question and then and I'll I'll pass it on to you Chris now that these financialized Bitcoin products have been released and their popularity right that for a lot of people don't don't know this but the Black Rockck Bitcoin ETF was the most successful ETF launch in Black Rockck's history. Morgan Stanley quickly followed. The Morgan Stanley ETF is the most successful ETF launch in Morgan Stanley's history. I had a friend have a good friend of mine. He works at Goldman. And he was telling me, "Hey, you know, this is someone who I've been trying to orange pill for like more than a decade." And I was like, "Hey man, you got to get into Bitcoin. You got to get into Bitcoin." And it wasn't until recently that he was like, "Hey, Nico, by the way, we're launching a product, right? And Goldman Sachs is one of the most conservative wealth management banks in the world, right? So obviously everyone's getting attracted to the number go up perspective. Now Chris, I think what worries me is man, is the revolution even possible? Like did people forget? Is this even possible if people don't take self- custody of their coins? >> There's a lot to unpack there. So um I'm in Bitcoin because of the freedom aspect, the sovereignty, and you forfeit that entirely if you have this paper Bitcoin. And it was inevitable that if we build this thing and this thing is really cool that of course institutions and governments also want to come in and there's nothing we can do to prevent that. And I like probably take the stage like self custody is great but if you are like an American person has a Roth IRA or a 401k you don't have access to like those instruments like you can't directly buy Bitcoin. any any form of Bitcoin exposure I think is better than no Bitcoin exposure. Um if you want the revolution that's not going to be with IBIT that's not going to be with Fidelity. Of course you need this asset this this fuck you money that you can send and nobody can stop you. You can't do that with any you know synthetic derivative or paper. Uh take it in self custody, get a cold card or a bit box and and then you're golden and that's how you fight. and then yeah, bring this message to as many people as possible. That's what we're doing here. Bitcoin is the peaceful revolution. Opt out of this fiat system. And yeah, don't don't feed it uh if you don't have to is what I would say. Ben, I think a lot of people, we had this utopian vision, and I know you guys know what I'm talking about, you know, five years ago, where we had this conception that, you know, we were going to get to a world where every single person was holding their own keys, right? And that fundamentally was going to shift the balance of power from the state to the individual. And looking back on that, I'm kind of like, yeah, that was a utopian vision because I think as Bitcoiners, we underestimated how many people would rather choose convenience over sovereignty, right? And my fear is that I think that this this trend will continue and it's really up to you guys in the crowd. I'm going to ask you guys, how many of you guys take self custody? We're talking to the wrong crowd then. I'm glad that you guys are here. Exactly. Waving her hand. Um, so Ben, question to you. Like, were we wrong in that worldview? Like, were we just so naive? Like, we we just kept winning and winning and winning and winning. And a lot of us, including myself, I'm guilty of this. I celebrated when the ETF came. But, as all things, there's trade-offs. I think a lot of people underestimated that when Wall Street got in, Wall Street was going to do what Wall Street always does, right? They weren't going to change behavior. They weren't going to say kumbaya. Larry Frink isn't talking about Bitcoin, going on TV and saying how awesome Bitcoin is because he wants all you guys to buy a hardware wallet and take self cussy of it. He's telling you all that because he's like, "Buy my ETF, bro. It's fantastic." So, um, on to you, Ben. What did we get wrong? What did what did what was the wrong assumption that we have and do you foresee a world a decade from now that perhaps you know people are like ah you know what okay perhaps these maniacs on stage were right. Yeah, I think uh you were right in the sense that it was a bit of a utopian idea uh purely because of the convenience aspect. Like the masses want convenience and ultimate accountability, ultimate responsibility that comes with self-custody is not within their toolkit initially, but I don't necessarily see paper bitcoin and self-custody as like antithetical systems. I see it more as like a stepping stone for most people. the more exposure and NGU they get, the more likely they are to be like, "Oh, this counterparty risk is now bigger than I'm actually comfortable with. Um, so I think the lessons learned from the hot stoves, whether it's FTX or BlockFi and the rest, there'll be a lot of people that will always touch that stove cuz it's like moss to a flame with convenience. And there's not really anything you can do about that. Um, but I do think in the next 10 years that it will become trivial to self custody. As AI progresses, as all of the tools progress, I think it'll become easier and more obtainable for most individuals. Um, so I'm hoping to see that increase rather than decrease even though the convenience will also become easier as well. >> Absolutely. I mean, that's something that we actively have to fight for. That's that's something that we constantly have to advocate for. I always say, and I I kind of borrow a little bit from JFK's speech, right? It's like, don't ask what your country could do for you, ask what you can do for your country. I always say, don't ask what Bitcoin could do for you. Ask what what you can do for Bitcoin. And I think the most powerful thing that you can do is advocating for self-custody. And remember, the next generation, like I have a daughter, she's like 3 or 4 months old. She was born into a world where Bitcoin already existed, meaning she's going to be Bitcoin native. So from a very early age, I'm going to try to educate her on the fact of like, listen, if it's not your keys, it's not your cheese. If it's not your Bitcoin and self-custody, it's not really yours. If you have to ask somebody else for permission to use your money, it ain't your money. And I think a lot of us take that for granted because we live in countries that have a relatively stable financial system, but we forget that the vast majority of the world, the global south, do have capital controls. It's not easy to move money. and not to mention the inflation that comes with it. So D, you're on the forefront of this, man. You work at uh one of the companies that make one of the best hardware wallets in the industry. Do you see more people buying cold cards today than 5 years ago? >> Yeah, I think it's a tough question because as Bitcoin becomes more mainstream, we obviously do get more customers that are coming in, right? Um there's kind of the the soup coiners and and the plebs or the self-custody people right now. And it doesn't have to be either or. Um, but we do see a lot of people stepping up and and buying our products, of course. That's why we're still in business, of course. Um, but yeah, it's it's I I I think I think, you know, it's it it it takes steps. It's it's baby steps, right? Um, people when you go down that Bitcoin rabbit hole, you just want to learn everything all at once. Or you're uh someone that has a lot of money already and they just want to buy the ETF and and screw off, right? Um, so I think people are definitely uh coming and I think people are learning and that's why you you're all here today. Um, but it's it's baby steps, right? Um, there's a lot of there's a lot of topics. There's there's multiync, there's single sync, there's the quantum threat, the AI stuff, the >> quantum really. >> Yeah. >> Right. There's a there's a lot uh in this industry and there's a lot of uh there's there's a lot to talk about and a lot to dive into or mini scripts which a lot of people may may not even know about. Um and I think it's just taking it one step at a time and throwing five bucks onto a hardware wallet and and moving it around, right? Um I think that's your first step. You don't have to throw a million dollars onto a hardware wallet and freak out that you lost your seed. Um you can you can throw 10 bucks and learn first. I think the I think like you know educational plat platforms like yourself um lots of YouTube channels that are educating people like you guys uh and others uh are really important and the soup coiners have a lot of money and they're going to sell you a lot of products because that is their financial incentive to do so. Um you know Larry Larry Frink makes money off his ETF like he every time there's a trade he he makes he makes some some money. Um, so it it's it's definitely a groundup thing. Uh, and and it takes time and everyone's here today to learn and I think it's it's great. I I hope we we keep going in that direction. Um, and I I I think we're going to get there and I think people will learn over time. Hopefully sooner than later. Um, but I always like to say, you know, trial by fire is definitely the quickest way to learn. Um, because they get burnt and then they change their behavior. Um, so maybe don't go down that route and save yourself some money, but uh, yeah, I think I think we're getting there. I think it's it's a groundup movement and, you know, self-custody is extremely important. >> Absolutely. I think self-custody is the way. And I will say also to to add to D's point, um, I don't think you've really I I don't think you can call yourself, maybe this is a little bit um, uncomfortable to say this, but hey, why not? You know, we got to spice this up a little bit. I don't really think you can call yourself a Bitcoiner unless you have at least a little bit of Bitcoin in self-custody. I don't think you can actually have a true appreciation of the network. But I also want to talk about kind of the geopolitical implications of what happens in a world where 5 to 10% of the population has decided to opt out into a parallel censorship resistant uh financial system or or a protocol better set. what happens in that type of world and I'll give you guys a real world example that just happened one or two weeks ago where you know we have the situation in the straight of Hormuse and you know the conflict in Iran and Iran so fascinating this happened they said that if you wanted to pass the straight of Hormuse you had to pay them $2 million but specifically they said we want to get paid in Bitcoin they didn't say we want to get paid in dollars they didn't say they want to get paid in the Iranian currency they said They wanted to get paid in Bitcoin. Right now, why why is that so important that I bring up? Governments get a tremendous amounts of power get a tremendous amount of power from not only issuing their own currency, but also controlling the money flows. So, what happens when a significant portion of their population decide, hey, enough is enough. I'm sorry. I'm just going to opt out. This isn't working for me. Right? And then this leads me to my next point. And Chris, I want to get your thoughts on this. Like do you see a world 5 to 10 years from now where governments specifically in the west say hey you know what like actually we're okay with Bitcoin but it has to be captured Bitcoin it has to be Bitcoin within the system and Europe is marching full speed ahead in that direction right you know with the uh what was it the name of the regulations >> uh yeah Micah >> the MA regulations yeah >> yeah we we love good regulation in Europe and yeah we are all afraid of CBDC which will come we will have like a fully captured money that can be controlled that can be seized at a whim that's why of course Iran and other nations you may think of them what you will but they opt for a money that cannot be fucked with by any centralized authority and it's like open to anybody it's the first public money that we have and yeah it might make sense to get some in case it catches on. And in Europe, we we I see people in the audience like we we shout shouted from the roofs like get off the sinking ship. And to your earlier point, like do you see a future where 5 10% of people like only accept this? That's I I I'm very bearish on like 100% adoption of Bitcoin. There will always be feared I think. But as like with the parto principle like 20% of people are responsible for like 80% of the work at a certain point this very productive class of people will realize hey I no longer want to be paid in this melting ice cube I will only take payment for my goods and services in Bitcoin and that is where we're moving towards and that is enough to to make this whole thing work and make the world better I think. Yeah. And I I just don't like I have a hard time believing that the two systems are compatible, right? Because we're kind of in this transitionary period. But if you're a government, right, like specifically the US government, like Office of Foreign Asset Control, they sanction entire countries and their justification is like, listen, the government of Cuba is evil. You could say, okay, you know, I'm Venezuelan. I'm from Miami. I I don't like the government of Cuba. Well, what what people don't talk about is when they sanction Cuba, the vast majority of people are not part of the Cuban government and they get affected by those sanctions as well. Bitcoin is for them. Bitcoin serves them, right? So, I don't see a world where a central bank digital currency system and a Bitcoin system are compatible. I don't think the two systems are compatible. And if the two systems are not compatible, that means eventually if they truly believe in rolling out a central bank digital currency, to use Christine Lagard's own words, she's a convicted felon, I might add, this is true, ahead of the of the European Central Bank, she called Bitcoin an escape valve. She had a Freudian slip. I don't know if she did that on purpose, but she said the quiet part out loud. >> Or Barack Obama, it's a a Swiss bank account in your pocket. Like speaking truth. So I yeah they they can they should not coexist but they will coexist. Uh and like states like we need to have this peaceful revolution of starving the beasts like if we only take payment in bitcoin if we only take this money that cannot be controlled sooner or later the government does not have the money to pay the police force or like the people to force you to accept anything else >> and they're going to demonize people. I I'm calling this right now. They're going to and I've been I've been at this for a while and so far I've gotten the vast majority of things I've said right. Not because I'm a genius, but just because of the game theory. Um I think we're going to get to a point where in the future, and you saw this with the Biden administration, like Operation Chokepoint 2.0 was very scary. They tried to kill the Bitcoin industry death by a thousand regulatory cuts. You can make a very strong argument that Camala lost the election because a big po portion of her voting demographic were people that held Bitcoin and forgive my language shitcoins. So you could make an argument that that cost her the election. Like you guys have to understand the president the president now the president of the United States felt the necessity to go to the Bitcoin 2024 conference because he he believed that that was a very powerful voting block. He was right and he won that election. Right. So, I'm gonna pass it on to >> Welcome to Predict. The world is a market. Everything is a market. Every headline moves the line. Every moment is your market. Call the moves. Bet on your instinct, your prediction, your edge. Dual bits. predict where everything is a market. >> Ben, Ben, I think one of the biggest hang-ups and something probably D, you've experienced this as well, is I think what stops people from taking self-custody is not only the convenience aspect of it. Like, okay, I could just buy Bitcoin through my Schwab account and stuff like that, but I also think it's the complexity aspect. I think a lot of us underestimated the fact that some people are just not built for writing down 12 words, you know, and and storing those 12 words. Is that something that we overestimated as Bitcoiners? Is that something that perhaps we had too much of a positive attitude? Is that something that perhaps we underestimated how difficult self-custody was for for you know the vast majority of people? >> Yeah. As much as we want to be like it's just writing down 12 words, it's it's more than that. In order to put like a meaningful amount in self- custody, you really need to have a solution to protect you and your family because again the ultimate accountability, ultimate responsibility of the setup and that can be single SIG, you know, with a passphrase. So you're having a decoy that can be multi-IG. But then you get into the complexity of like, you know, is it cold card? Does it have secure elements? Is it seed sign? Is it stateless? Is it FOS? are open source viewable and like how do I understand all these nuances and you kind of need to in order to self custody like you could just go into a hot wallet and do it slowly but surely and take steps but again like it's not just about the convenience of the opposition it's also about like how complex this is to learn and gro and it can kind of be daunting at the start and you also think about like you know if if you're a friend or you're wanting to orange a friend it's like hey watch this video use this link to buy this then set up this tutorial this software it's you're giving them 10 links by the end of it. And so that's what we kind of want to do with Bitcoin Butlers is to try and make that easier. Like, hey, this is my preferred method that I think is good for my friend so that we're not having to deal with like this is what you should do. All we want to do is help you with how you can do it and have one link to be able to buy it from and see your tutorials from. So, I think these things will become clearer in terms of understanding that complexity, too. But I really just think it's like not writing down the 12 words, but actually securing it is the part that freaks people out. And so there needs to be a bit more of a conversation about like what that looks like. But at the same time, people don't want to talk about that because it's poor ops. So for all you guys that raise your hand being like I self custody, congratulations. Everyone in the room is like, okay, that person self custodies. So there is like a meaningful threat with it as well that we should address and not be like, oh, it's just 12 words. Write it down. >> Yeah. I I think like we've made such large strides like hardware signers have been invented in 2013 by like the Satoshi Labs guys and since then a lot of different yeah new tools came on the scene and I myself I sell seed backups but I work with handicapped people too and I I'm very like privileged and I realized hey there are people that cannot emboss their seat phrase and steal on their own. Now we have a bit key that's a seat seatless hardware signer that's not for me but I see there is a demographic there are people for that is the right tool and we just keep building better tools and better wallets we have time decaying wallets we can have redundancy stuff that was not possible four or five years ago and yeah the best way to achieve more of that is if actual users interact with the builders with the developers voice how they would like to have things. You don't have to build it yourself, but people really like feedback and that way we can find I truly believe anybody can self custody their bitcoin one way or another. For some people it's easier for some people it's okay now but maybe in the future I get seen all these things need to be solved for this to become bigger than it is now. And I think this is the place yeah to to connect and exchange those ideas. Speaking of that privacy stuff, you know, as a educator, maybe you as well, it's like uh you always get the question, well, what's the best setup, you know? Well, well, what do you do? You know, and you're like, well, I here's here's options, right? >> I don't own any I don't own any Bitcoin. >> Right. Right. >> I don't think any of us on stage own any Bitcoin. >> Uh yeah, we all got in a voting accident last week. Um but, uh it's a tough one because people don't may not like all the options and you give them all the options and then they're saying, "Oh, it's too complicated. I'm just going to go buy the ETF like my buddy, you know. Um, so I think that's something that we have to kind of navigate around as educators because it's tough like, you know, you want you want to help people out and you want to guide them, but you obviously don't want to dox your own coins and how exactly you do it and you know, there is best practices of course, but um there's no oneizefits-all, right? Some people it's it's kind of like a trade-off game. >> There's no panacea like there's not one sizefits-all and you Yeah. talk to somebody who you trust who brought you maybe to Bitcoin and he will you can learn from some of the mistakes. Some mistakes you have to make yourself. I I believe that. But yeah, talk to people, get educated and it will take a 100 hours to to fully be proficient in that. But you did that before in your life and uh it's much easier to gro Bitcoin than it is to grock the financial system. I can assure you that. >> And like driving a car, you will make a mistake. Um, the first time you recover, and I know all you guys on stage probably understand this, and I'm assuming some people in the crowd as well, the first time you recover your, you know, Bitcoin from your, from your seed phrase, it's a mixed feeling. First, you have a heart attack because you're like, "Oh my god." Second, you're like, "Wow, this is magic." Right? Um, and then you start doing it after a while and you just know it's going to recover. But you know there there's no amount of education. There's no amount of me explaining that to someone for them to literally understand the words that I'm saying. It's something that someone literally has to experience themselves. But the positive side is that it's a one-way door. I think that if you do take the time to learn how to reclaim back your financial sovereignty by taking Bitcoin into self-custody and you understand the power that comes with that. I have yet to meet a person that says, "You know what? I'm just going maybe they say it, but I have it's I've yet to met a person that says, "Yeah, you know what? I I sold all my Bitcoin in self custody. I'm just going to buy the ETF instead." like it it's it's it's very difficult to go back once you have a taste of that freedom. So Ben, I want to get your thoughts. We're we're a little bit running out of time here. How much paper Bitcoin do you think there actually was over the summer cuz we had a very interesting cycle this cycle, right? You had the China mining ban in 2021. I would say they cut the cycle short and then um in 2017 you had the famous euphoric run. So for all of us dopamine addicts, we haven't had our hit since 2021. This last cycle was a cycle that peaked on apathy. It didn't peak on euphoria. How much how much of that was caused by Wall Street's involvement into the game? How much of that was caused by potentially paper Bitcoin? What's your opinion? >> It's a good question. It's it's tough to gauge because, you know, obviously they have to comply with audits and you know, if they >> do they though? Exactly. That's the question is like do they though? Um but what do they have to lose if they you know fudge those audits? Their whole business, their whole ETF, their license to actually offer these financial services. So they have a lot to lose. That being said, like some of the more interesting things that came out over the last few months was uh strategy. You know, in their 10K filing, they actually listed who their custodians are. They're waiting with each one and introduced the language to be able to self-custody at a moment's notice. And so it's interesting that self-custody isn't just for the individuals and the small businesses, but it's for the institutions too. And like introducing that language, I think just keeps those custodians on their toes being like, look, if we ever distrust you guys, there goes that source of revenue by custodying our you know, Bitcoin. >> So let's talk about that for as well, right? Like guys, the majority of the ETFs, they have one custodian. only Fidelity is the one that takes custody of their Bitcoin. The rest of the ETFs, including a very big company, they all custody of their Bitcoin with Coinbase. And I heard a rumor that Brian Armstrong has all that Bitcoin in the ledger in his nightstand. Um, it's just a rumor though. I don't know that for sure. But that is a problem, right? the fact that you have so much Bitcoin and again it's not that I have anything against Coinbase or Coinbase custody but it's the concentration of Bitcoin that is literally 6102 order away from belonging to the United States government right um so thoughts >> so I mean everybody who is exposed to an ETP ETF or like some paper Bitcoin scream ask for not just an attestation or an audit like I'm German like wire card bank had all these things and they failed. They had nothing. Bitcoin is very easy to prove that you can sign, make a signature. You don't even have to move it, but you can ask for it. A proof of reserves. Like there is a big Bitcoin company, River, they do that. They manage to do that. Michael Sailor, Coinbase, they could prove actually we do have those keys. We can move them and they are not fudged. >> I'd push back on that though because that stuff can be fudged. And also like what's more reputable uh proof of reserve which even I think Alex says look it's not the be all end all. It can be fudged but like at least we're going in the right direction versus these other companies that have to comply with these audits from these big financial regulators that would absolutely love to shut them down. So it's like yeah a proof of reserves is not enough. You need proof of liability which is impossible but it's more than they do right now. >> Ladies and gentlemen, that was the panel. Thank you so much. Bitcoin or slavery, everybody? Bitcoin and self custody or slavery. Every year, this community comes together to celebrate, to debate, to build what comes next. And every year the stage gets bigger. Sound money center stage. So where do you go to celebrate the next chapter in Bitcoin history? You come home. Nashville. July 2027.