Google I/O: Day 1 Reactions, Goldman to Lead SpaceX IPO | Diet TBPN

Uh we're both in suits today. I like it. It looks good. Some uh weird people they can't tell us. They can't tell us apart. >> Is that what you're saying? >> That Okay. Anyway, >> but people have been saying I need something like a swear jar. >> Okay. >> When I don't wear a suit. >> Oh, okay. I'd like that. >> And uh so so yeah, something something to consider. It should probably be a pretty big jar. >> 20 bucks to the Open AI nonprofit. That's what you got to do. Um no, we were in Unheard. Uh we I mean we can pull up the full uh the full post later in the show, but uh there's a funny I mean it's a good good analysis of like uh you know what we've taken from ESPN, what works about live streaming. This is from Alice Key. Uh my latest for Unheard is on why tech shows like TVPN are rerunning the sports media playbook invented by ESPN and why it's working. They're hard to tell apart in their matching suits and floppy haircuts. I don't know if that's good or bad, but uh we don't always have matching suits. Usually Jory's the casual one, but yesterday we were both casual. Today we're both in suits. >> We do we do still get the brother thing a lot, >> but I think it's a term of endearment. I think it's positive. Anyway, we have to react to Google IO. Of course, there's a whole bunch of announcements. Uh some really exciting stuff, some stuff that people are having mixed reactions to. We'll take you through it all, but first we need to watch this video about humanoid robot ramp. >> Why is ramp? >> I'm kidding. >> No, I'm crying. Watch this video. >> Let's get some. >> You got to go to the beginning. You're spoiling it. You got to go to the beginning. >> Doing pretty well. Moving pretty quickly. Little bit of a Oh, catches itself. Catches itself. Not bad. Not bad. Okay. Seems like a full recovery. Seems like you're ready to go. >> Another one. >> I'm liking it. >> Yeah. >> And then not good. And then I I wonder what it's thinking because you would think that there would be >> Oh, they got to cut the music. They got to cut the music. Don't let the music keep playing while your your boy's down. >> It just gets carried off like this. It's so crazy to just carry it off like this. Anyway, singularity delayed. >> Yeah, it's possible that uh the robot died from embarrassment. >> Yeah. Or maybe it was damaged. It's possible that like as it as it hit the ground, it was just actually taken out. Anyway, Google IO, bunch of different announcements. Uh, Brandon Gell on our team posted on the TBPN newsletter some reactions. Sort of bucketed it into four key areas. Intelligent eyewear, this is an interesting one. I want to go into this. Gemini Omni, we talked about the videos. We played a little bit of that yesterday. Upgrades to Gemini LLMs. Those have been mixed reactions from developers. We'll go through that. And then anti-gravity, uh, which is an interesting place with an interesting history. So, uh, let's start with intelligent eyewear. If you had to pick Warby Parker, Gentle Monster, have you heard of Gentle Monster before? I've heard of Warby Parker. I know the story. I I I I'm a fan of of the business story. Super familiar. I I haven't worn glasses in a very long time, so I'm not really in the market, but the Warby Parkers, I've always I've always enjoyed the way they thought about the brand, and I've also been impressed by the way they built that business. They were early to the DTOC boom, and then didn't some of the founders move over to Harry's? Is that the same team or is that a different maybe I'm thinking of? They were certainly when I when I think of DTOC, I think of Warby. Yeah. I think of Allirds and I think of >> Everlane. Yes. But when you think of the last two out of those three, the market caps are sub 100 million. Allirds was trading at what 20 million or something and then spiked because of the AI thing. But uh Allirds, Everlane, uh not really sustainable businesses. Uh Warie Parker on the other hand uh current market >> has sitting at three and a half >> billion has pretty much been down only >> down only since the pump on their neocloud no surprises there >> well have they given us an update on how they are rolling out Kubernetes how it's going building their neo cloud did they get allocation are they racking cerebras are they racking GB200s what are they racking and how fast are they getting power it would be funny how fast they access Jensen ends up having to talk about all birds on the earnings call today. There's a new >> Yeah. Didn't they also like fully rebrand the name? It was it going to be like bird AI or all AI like >> Allird still exists but they basically kept the public entity >> and that's what they're building the Neocloud through. >> So >> fun. Well, >> lots of fun. >> Uh Orby Parker uh resilient. I mean uh in 2021 it was a six billion dollar company. Now it's a three billion dollar company. Uh not the best scenario, but surprisingly resilient. I think in a time when a lot of people wrote off a lot of the standalone direct to consumer was like either get rolled in to a bigger company or uh go or or like face the fate of the public markets. But uh Warry Parker has a deal with Google and Samsung. Uh Google says we're partnering with Samsung Gentle Monster and Orby Parker on new intelligent eyewear. Here's a sneak peek at two designs from this fall's upcoming collections. Uh, and people are This is I like Futuromics from Sam. Kind of crazy that you can wear your favorite Mag 7 on your face now. Uh, you can. Uh, the gentle monster one does a really good job of hiding the camera. I imagine that it will have a light to tell you if it's recording, but if someone wore these from a distance. Also, Meta Ray Bands have done sort of the hard work of becoming the first face computer. So when you see Ray-B bands and they're a little thick, you start immediately thinking, "Oh, should I be looking for a for a camera lens? Am I being recorded?" Uh, but the gentle monster design, the silhouette doesn't scream technology. It doesn't scream uh wearable face camera. And so uh these are going to be a little bit more stealthy. Warby Parkers look nice, but the camera pump on this you zoom in on the Warby Parker >> one. It see, you know, it makes a lot of sense that that the Googles and the metas have to go and partner on different silhouettes. Yeah. My expectation, my uninformed >> uh expectation is that Apple will just make Apple glasses, right? They will probably I I it's hard to see them taking the route at least early on of partnering and allowing another company to influence the design language, but it makes a lot of sense that uh that Meta would partner with Luxodica. >> Okay, first look look at the camera bump on this. If you zoom in as far as you can, I don't know if we can zoom in any further, but uh the the camera is actually not flush with the frames. It's actually protruding a little bit. Yeah, you can see it right there. Uh interesting design choice. I wonder how that will catch the light, how that will reflect in in uh in the real world. But this was all from a joke uh from Abdu says, "Okay, so Apple has Carl's eyes. Meta has Ray-B bands and Oakley. Google has Gentle Monster and Warby Parker. Boring. Which company is going to be bold enough to slap wearable technology into some 3M safety glasses? Would you rock these, Jordy? 3M safety glasses? You know what I'm talking about, right? You're working with a buzz saw. Dust in your eyes. >> But these these look cool. These are sporty. I'm much more likely to just commit to the bit. Just go fullank computer. Full full cyber punk. Clank. Full. Yeah. Full. You clank out. Full cyberpunk. I think that's uh I think that might be the move. I don't know. For some company, a challenger company could potentially do that. Maybe friend or something. Uh anyway. Um what else? Uh so Warby Parker traded down on the news which uh Shield Monot was surprised by. Why is Warby Parker down 14%. They announced a partnership at Google IO that's been in the works for a while. Is it because they aren't available yet? and our friend Rat King M Isaac says, "Okay, Google AI glasses with Warby Parker are officially coming for Meta Ray-B bands." Google also said it would bring Gemini to glasses this fall with Samsung electronics and and the eyewear companies Warby Parker and Gentle Monster. The glasses, which work similarly to Meta Rayban smart glasses, come with a camera, microphone. >> Yeah. At what point at what point does Google just buy Warby Parker, right? It's a $3 billion company. It's actually done quite well over the last uh over the last six months. It's up 43% in the last uh 6 months, although it's been um almost flat uh this year. Uh I would say I expect that uh smart glasses are going to have product market fit among people that need to wear glasses first, right? If you already have to wear glasses all day long for your vision, uh why not throw some smart features in there? It's going to be harder to get someone that doesn't need glasses to add a new device to their rotation, right? Yeah. Um, and so, uh, you know, Warby Parker's, you know, done quite well and, uh, has been surprisingly resilient, but they have, you know, incredible distribution. Uh, and I wouldn't be surprised if they get sniped at some point. >> I mean, deeper integration into a traditional, I don't know, like workflow like like a lot of the Google IO, we'll get into this, but was talking about Spark, the personal AI assistant. And when I think about >> Spark, >> it's an A. >> I know. I know. I know. >> Oh, just look in Omni. >> Yeah, there there's a lot of names. It's Google. There's a lot of products. Uh you're referring to, of course, Nathan Clark's post. It's it's in Gemini. Just created an AI studio. Oh, it's for your personal goo Google account. For workspace, you need Gemini Business. No, not Gemini Advance. That's AI Pro now. Unless you need AI Ultra. Oh, agents, you do that in Spark, actually. No, not Gemini API management. And it's the typical uh meme. The the interesting thing is that I I do think uh Meta Raybands like it was always like okay you have a deep integration with WhatsApp you have a deep integration with Instagram DMs maybe Facebook Messenger some people are still using that but in terms of like wiring into your life there are way more people that see Google Docs Gmail as like the central node in their personal life like pe like people think of like my the all the stuff I have saved on my the desktop of My MacBook is like my core repository. A lot of people think, okay, for the important stuff, I'll put it in Google Docs or Google Drive and then most things flow through Gmail. Most things flow through iMessage. There are some people that just are like, yeah, WhatsApp is the number one screen time for me. That's where I really organize things. But Meta doesn't really have this like knock-on effect of like, oh yes, you've you you're it's not a necessarily an enterprise level productivity suite, but there are people who are like, yeah, I'm using Apple Mail, iMessage. I save my files in Apple files, Apple, you know, the the cloud storage. I use my my camera roll super important. So an an AI agent running through the Apple ecosystem can be valuable and an AI agent running through the Google ecosystem can be valuable. the meta smart glasses. It's a little bit trickier to go and do anything that because you're just like sort of bumping up against the walled gardens, right? Yeah. But investor Nick doesn't like them for aesthetic reasons. He says these Google X Warby Parker glasses are horrific looking compared to these Meta Ray-B bands. Someone is probably going to lose their job over this. I don't know that they look that much worse. I don't know. Ray-B bands are a very uh iconic silhouette and they do look good. So, we'll see. We'll see how the response goes. I think uh from a product perspective, there's obviously fertile ground. On the flip side, the Wayfairer is just such an iconic, it's more iconic than anything Warby Parker has produced. And that's just sort of the reality of brand building over a decade versus a century or something like that, however long Rayban's been around. Long time. Uh anyway, uh Genie 3, you can now simulate real places by grounding Genie 3 experiences with street view imagery. Google is sitting on a a motherload of real world data. I was always thinking YouTube was going to be so valuable for Omni and V3, V4 maybe in the future. I hadn't considered Street View as a trove of data. Demis seems very datailled. He seems a lot of the Mag 7 CEOs seem very data. There's that story about Mark Zuckerberg uh screen recording or or or re logging all the computer use from all the meta employees. the these important troves of data are increasing in value and Street View certainly seems like it's one of them. This is cool. I wonder how interactive this will be. How how this actually instantiates into a game. It's a great demo. What does it take to >> Yeah. Do they allow people to build games on top of this? >> Yeah. I just think about I don't know. I I mean Deus has a background in games and he was sort of alluding to the fact that he might go back into games at some point or or at least be able to like scratch that itch again. famously he uh wrote uh uh a programmatic code to generate vomit in a roller coaster simulator. Very fun story. Uh but again when I think about roller coaster tycoon which was not I think I I don't think he was actually working on that game. It was a similar uh theme park simulator but uh we are moving back into the simulator world. But the mechanic is what is so enticing to gamers often when I think about the games that I've spent a long time with. Some of them have incredible graphics. AAA graphics. Some of them have 2D graphics, but the mechanic is great. And so that is what gets me to. >> The legend Bobby Chipman in the X chat says, "Can't wait for smart glasses to fully replace my monitors." >> Yeah, maybe you'll need augmented reality or something. Meta Rayban display certainly going that direction. The Orion I' I've been surprised. Wasn't the first episode we ever did we were talking about Orion? Uh, and they still haven't shipped it, right? I mean, they ship the smaller version, the Meta Rayban displays, which have sort of the the Call of Duty HUD. It's not full augmented reality. I was expecting I was expecting we we we've demoed the Orion headset and it and in it has a bit of a narrow field of view, but it really can put a screen right in front of you. Uh and I I assumed that, you know, everyone was saying it's really expensive, it's clunky, it's not ready for prime time, but you know, look at how fast things are going. In a year, maybe two, we'll get it. And maybe that's coming at the next MetaConnect. Maybe this summer we'll see it, but haven't been that many rumbles on it. And then obviously the massive p pitch uh shift to AI capex uh might have taken a backseat. I don't know. I'm certainly hopeful. Uh I'd like AR and VR. I think uh I think we're we're we're overdue for a new fun product. I'm still waiting for the next Apple Vision Pro. Apple Vision Air. Something just lighter. That's all I want. Cheaper maybe, but lighter and same screen. Screen was great. Uh anyway, >> we know John >> Gemini Flash 3.5 looks pretty neat according to Tennibbrris and extremely fast, but still largely the sort of incremental progress we've come to expect from Google. Generally, a pretty disappointing IO. Now, what's interesting is that uh Gemini 3 felt like a new base pre-train, felt like it had some of that big model smell, felt like it was uh, you know, really delightful to talk to. And I think a lot of people were expecting Gemini 4 here. We're still waiting for the next iteration here. And also, >> yeah, we're still waiting for Pro. >> Yeah, Pro isn't out. Uh, but people are speculating that that that 3.5 Pro won't necessarily be a new pre-train. And so, uh, it seems like it's a there's a little bit of, uh, research being at odds with like the product cadence. like Google IO is scheduled probably like two years in advance and whether or not the training run finishes on time is a little bit harder to uh package up and nail on a specific time. We see this with uh the independent labs or the OpenAI Anthropic the other labs XAI like they're launching models very much like when they're done and then they will like instantiates like something that looks like a conference around it or maybe a video or a blog post a model card. Uh but if you're if you're grinding towards a specific date uh and the specific model isn't quite ready uh you come out with something that's looks a little bit more incremental. People were really really uh honing in on the fact that the the cutoff date was January of 2025, right? Was that the was that the date that or was it December of 2025? Either way, yeah, I I don't know. I don't know how much cut off time cut off dates matter because you know all these models, you know, can query the web and and get upate information. Yeah, overall reactions from uh developers across the board were not good. Not good at all. >> Underwhelming. >> Cursor ranked it on cursor bench. Uh it is below composer 2 on >> is that is that a fair thing? I mean I'd like to see you rank another another live stream on tbpn bench. It doesn't match up, you know. It's like >> No, I mean they have they have all the other they have all the other frontier >> and some of them are ahead of cursor's own models on >> it's just one it's just one data point >> but yeah yeah here's the other thing it's four times it it costs four time it underperforms composer 2 even though it's roughly four times more expensive >> interesting interesting yeah I I feel like for a long time Google's positioning was you know frontier or near frontier but best possible pricing and this marks sort of a shift in the strategy perhaps >> yeah overall starting to make more and more and more sense why Google has put so much capital and resources behind anthropic. >> Yeah, says uh seems to indicate that deep mind is constrained by data rather than compute for what they intend to do. Hence the TPU sales uh rest of Google now shipping their org chart. Ben Thompson talked about that a little bit and there was some context on like you know we were asking the question like will there be AI fatigue from stuffing AI in every product surface area? Alli K. Miller shares one of the loudest applauses in the entire Google keynote. Uh Nisha Nisha put on the gentle monster plus Gemini glasses, tapped the side to summon Gemini. An all-in-one prompt said, "Take a photo and put a cartoon blimp in the sky that says Google IO 2026." And within seconds, the preview of the edited photo from Nanobana appeared on her watch. I want to spend less time on screens. AI is really coming everywhere. And so much is driven by voice AI as the interaction mode. Uh very cool demo. Uh impressive technology, but Greg's Gadget says, "These companies truly have no idea what regular people want because uh yeah, that is a little bit of a niche use case. You you need to be more creative with it uh for when you would actually use that because this is a very it's a perfect demo of the product and the functionality, but it lacks that like creative spark of like, yes, I did want a picture of that on my wrist at that key moment in time." uh if you're not doing a demo. His point is that regular people would not be excited about that particular feature. Right. SpaceX IPO, we're getting more details by the day. >> Oh, the other the other thing the other thing that is was going pretty viral. The last thing on IO uh was that uh the Google anti-gravity team uh flashed a codeex folder. Oh yeah. In their uh in their actual demo video, uh Gurgley says, "I had to do a double take in the second minute of the launch video for anti-gravity. You can see people use codecs on the anti-gravity team. Did no one double check the launch video at the very least? Not a huge surprise. Uh obviously anti-gravity looks uh a lot of people were saying it looks quite quite like uh codec. So clearly >> more than windurf. I feel like it would be like a they would have just rebuilt Windsurf. I don't know. We'll have to see. >> No. So but but anyways, this isn't a huge surprise, right? Google's been using a bunch of anthropic models. Clearly they're using a ton of different models and products internally. >> What was that drama with Steve Yiggy going back and forth with Demis about like what what teams are using what models and stuff? There was a big back and forth big dust up on the timeline like a month ago about like whether or not Google's employees were deploying AI efficiently or broadly. Some of them aren't and some of them are. And Demis chimed in and said like this is just complete wrong and everyone's using AI. I don't know. goes back and forth. Uh there's also people are benchmarking Omni Flash, which looked amazing when we saw the videos. There was a there were a few like little quirks. Some people in the chat were saying that the firing order of the V8 was not correct. Maybe it was only a V6. >> Yeah, it was missing two cylinders. >> It was missing two cylinders. Uh but it looked good to me. I don't know. Uh but now people are actually comping it to Cedance 2.0, which obviously has much looser content restrictions. Uh because I I I guess just like Hollywood can't file a lawsuit in China. I'm not exactly sure how that works because Seance seems to be available in America. It it seems like maybe >> Oh, I think I think Chinese businesses have been relatively immune to US copyright law for a very very very long time. >> And it also might just take like years to file a lawsuit, do discovery, actually go through and litigate. >> Oh yeah. You you can just go like there's malls in China where you can go to a Nike store. Yeah. >> And Nike has nothing to do with it and yet all the products >> they've been selling swatch APS over there for decades. >> Yeah. Yeah. Just ask just ask uh Rolex and PC how they're >> Sure. Sure. >> Yeah. I I've heard fake cars too. Like you can get a full replica of like a G Wagon that's just made in a factory and then you could buy it, bring it over here and you take it to a Mercedes dealership and they're just like this is not a Mercedes but it looks like one like like you know to the millimeter from the outside >> but internally it's just it's just frauding. Uh anyway, Cance 2.0 looks great. OmniFlash looks great as well. These are both like super useful. Uh we'll see how they actually play out and how they get implemented, how they get used. The interesting thing will be like like at what point like it still takes a long time to generate videos. Very hard to get them right. The last 90 like we're at 99% fidelity but when you click in you start noticing little details. When will we be in a in a paradigm where you ask a question and you actually get an explainer video 6 minutes 10 minutes like you would on YouTube. uh very computationally expensive, very difficult to maintain the the logic like what is the deep research report of omni flash. These 8-second, 10-second, 20 second videos are impressive, uh but not perfectly substitutable for a 20-minute YouTube video because of the time and the level of detail that you can go into. Some people that are looking for information about a V8 engine, they want a breakdown that lasts 20 minutes. And so, uh that's the next benchmark. We got to move the goalpost. Uh SpaceX IPO the prospectus is income is incoming according to Zero Hedge as soon as May 20th. That's today. We will see. Goldman lead left. This was a surprise. Michael Grimes has worked with Elon for a long time at Morgan Stanley. There was some back and forth. He went back to Morgan Stanley. There's a question about whether or not uh there would even be a lead left because it was such a big IPO. Maybe they all share equally. Obviously, they're all going to make a ton of money off of this. So, good news from start to finish. But it is interesting that Goldman was selected. Do you have a soundboard cue you want to play? >> I'm always ready, John. >> Okay. Um, Katie Roof has a scoop. >> Uh, the scoop athlete of the century, Katie Roof >> has a scoop on the biggest venture returns ever. Founders Fund and Valor are set to make more than 60 billion in gains on the SpaceX IPO. Sequoia have more than 20 billion. >> Yeah. Is this was this somewhat of a reaction to uh D1 getting a lot of credit earlier in the week, right? They're set to uh to to generate roughly 20 billion uh in in returns. Uh and maybe some of these other funds thought to put their hand up and say >> I don't think I I I I think that at this scale like there are so many LPs in these funds that are getting updates and they've been they've known the numbers for a long time. they've known the ownership, the holdings and uh you do some back of the envelope and you get to uh some pretty huge numbers will be very interesting. Huge for Shawn Magcguire, huge for Luke Nosk and a lot of other folks over at Founders Fund and Antonio Gracio at Valor and all the other Founders Fund folks really Sequoia Founders Fund. >> They needed a win. They needed a win. I mean you go back like you know the these investments were made like 2004 2010 like it was not obvious. Certainly there was no Starlink narrative when these were made. There was no space data center narrative. This was a rocket company that was blowing up rockets left and right and not quite getting to uh you know massive business. You really had to believe be a believer and they were >> uh PY was having some fun on the timeline. He's >> said mega funds are too big to generate returns. They're basically just be collectors >> and of course they're printing. >> Yes, they are printing. Jensen Wong talked about the quarter that Nvidia just had. He said, "The buildout of AI factories, boo, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, yay, is accelerating at extraordinary speed. Yay." Uh, not a fan of the AI factory terminology, but good that uh there is progress being made. Agentic AI has arrived, he says. Doing productive work, true. Generating real value, true. And scaling rapidly across companies and industries. also true. Lots of good stuff. Nvidia net income, it rose to 42.96 billion. They almost hit 43 billion. Not too bad. Um, a year earlier they were doing just 18.8 billion in net income. Huge, huge increase. >> Really wild. >> Really wild. >> Printing definition of printing. >> All good news. Uh the stock is uh sort of up and down, basically flat, but Nvidia revenue jumped 85% to 81.62 billion from 44 billion last year, the company said. >> Shocking. >> Yeah, great stuff. Steve Waznjak, the co-founder of Apple at Grand Valley State University, he talked about AI and unlike Eric Schmidt, he did not get boo off booed off stage. He actually got cheered for his comments. Wait, this was uh who was it, Tyler? >> Steve Washniaak. >> No, no, no. Shots. I'm a big fan of Steve Wasniaak. >> I love the was >> shots fired. >> Let's play the clip from Grand Valley State University on Instagram here. >> You all have AI. You all have AI. Actual intelligence. >> Oh, mic drop. Knee slapper. >> Hey, playing to the crowd. He knows the audience. He knows the audience. trying to figure out how to make a brain, software or hardware, synapse chips, and I was at a company where the engineers figured out how to make a brain. Takes nine months. >> Um, yeah, knee slapper. But he knows the audience. He's delivering the right thing. Is he AGI pled? Is he super intelligence pled? Probably not. But, uh, it is, uh, regardless, I think, uh, it's it's potentially the right framing for the crowd. It's knowing the audience and uh and and that is a way to bridge to a broader conversation about AI, a broader conversation about how humans fit into a post AGI world. Uh I don't know. We'll have to go watch the full event. >> Let's uh close it out with this video from Tyler that we can pull up. >> Okay. What is this? >> Uh this is the video I was referencing uh with with Marcus. I'm very concerned about these gentlemen and what they're doing. >> Pull it up. What's happening? Let's get >> like this is >> this is insane contact. I mean it the helmet is getting dented. I think this is breaking. >> Not an issue. Skill issue. >> They really hitting that, aren't they? >> But we'll try it out after we >> have the gun mallet. >> We'll see you tomorrow. Goodbye. Cheers.