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Sweden’s PM on whether NATO can depend on Trump | The Economist
5/10TL;DR
Sweden argues that NATO membership has reduced its direct dependence on the United States by anchoring its security more firmly in regional alliances while Europe expands defense cooperation and industrial capacity.
KEY POINTS
From secret alignment to formal alliance
For decades after the 1940s and 1950s, Sweden officially presented itself as neutral while relying heavily on the United States and the wider Western security system. That dependence was kept largely out of public view, creating a legacy of formal non-alignment paired with deep practical Western ties. Swedish officials now describe that secrecy as difficult to defend in retrospect.
NATO seen as reducing bilateral US dependence
Stockholm’s current view is that joining NATO did not simply mean placing a larger bet on Washington. Instead, membership also bound Sweden more tightly to other allies, especially the Nordic and Baltic states, producing closer day-to-day cooperation with neighboring countries than at any previous point. In this reading, security now rests less on a bilateral American guarantee and more on a broader allied framework.
US role still considered essential
Swedish leaders continue to stress that the American role inside NATO remains critical. They argue that any shift in burden-sharing between North America and Europe must be orderly, predictable and managed in a way that preserves deterrence. The objective is not to weaken transatlantic ties but to avoid overconcentration of risk in a single partner.
Pragmatism toward Washington
Stockholm’s approach to the United States is explicitly pragmatic. On issues seen as touching core values or sovereignty, Swedish officials say they are direct and outspoken, citing the controversy around Greenland and support for Denmark as an example of frank disagreement. At the same time, Sweden is actively seeking deeper commercial and technological cooperation with American companies and continued access to the US market.
Middle powers avoiding open rupture
While some Western middle powers have framed current geopolitics as a confrontation with larger coercive states, Sweden’s position is more restrained. It accepts that disagreements with Washington exist, but it is not seeking a direct political clash. The emphasis is on protecting national interests, preserving room for cooperation and speaking clearly only when fundamental principles are at stake.
European defense buyers reassessing risk
Debate across Europe has widened beyond immediate politics to questions of availability, trust and operational control over military systems. Concerns about excessive dependence on American suppliers, including fears that access to key capabilities could be constrained in a crisis, have increased interest in diversifying procurement. That reassessment has boosted attention to European-made systems and to the strategic value of domestic or regional defense production.
Sweden positioning its defense industry
Sweden is openly trying to capitalize on that shift, particularly through exports such as the Gripen fighter and surveillance aircraft. No final Canadian deal has been completed, but Stockholm is actively promoting its offers and makes little effort to hide its commercial ambition. Swedish officials say each country must judge for itself how to spread risks and dependencies across suppliers.
Industrial autonomy as a long-term strategy
The argument for diversification predates current tensions. Sweden has maintained national military-industrial competence since the 1930s, partly to support self-sufficiency and partly to avoid reliance on a single external source. That history now feeds a broader European push for stronger local production, mutual dependency among trusted partners and more resilient access to equipment in wartime.
CONCLUSION
Sweden’s security strategy now combines continued support for the transatlantic link with a stronger emphasis on regional alliances and diversified defense dependence. The broader European challenge is to strengthen trust, supply and deterrence without breaking the alliance structure that still underpins continental security.
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