Tech • AI • Robotics
Why Are They Lying About SpaceX?
9.4/10TL;DR
SpaceX and Cognition AI publicly denied reports of acquisition talks, while bullish investors argued SpaceX could triple in value by decade’s end on the strength of Starlink, launch services, AI compute and future software businesses.
KEY POINTS
Acquisition report denied
Reports that SpaceX approached Cognition AI about a takeover were rejected by both companies. Cognition chief executive Scott Wu said the claim was untrue, and Elon Musk said there had been no talks about an acquisition. The only acknowledged contact involved making Grok work for Cognition’s needs.
Why the claim drew attention
The rumor gained traction because Cognition is one of the most closely watched names in AI coding tools. The company has been linked to a possible valuation of about $40 billion, and its Devin product is viewed as a leading autonomous coding agent. Any suggestion of interest from SpaceX immediately carried significance given the race to build AI software and compute platforms.
A kernel of truth may have fed speculation
Public denials left open the possibility that routine commercial discussions were misread as takeover interest. SpaceX and Cognition appear to have had technology-related contact, particularly around Grok integration and compute needs. That overlap may have made the false acquisition narrative sound plausible.
Possible motives behind the rumor
The episode highlighted how anonymous market chatter can serve several interests at once. A takeover rumor can help support fundraising narratives around a fast-growing startup, create volatility for traders, or reinforce a broader narrative that SpaceX is aggressively spending on AI. With SpaceX already expanding beyond launch and satellite internet, the story fit existing expectations even after it was denied.
Bull case for SpaceX remains expansive
Separate from the rumor, some investors argue SpaceX has unusually large upside if execution continues. One forecast cited the company’s cash generation, roughly 12 million Starlink subscribers, dominance in launch, and expansion into AI infrastructure as reasons the stock could triple by the end of the decade. The broader view is that the company is building several businesses that could each become enormous on their own.
Starlink is central to the valuation thesis
Starlink was described as already generating nine figures per quarter and as a major long-term driver of value. The satellite network has deployed more than 11,000 satellites, with more added this year, and future Starship operations could sharply lower launch costs and increase network capacity. That would allow much faster subscriber and revenue growth.
Launch business still underpins the company
Even without newer bets, SpaceX remains the dominant commercial launch provider through Falcon 9 and is pushing ahead with Starship. Reusability and falling cost per kilogram to orbit are seen as strategic advantages that competitors still struggle to match. Investors who favor the company argue launch alone could support a valuation in the trillion-dollar range over time if scale expands enough.
AI compute is emerging as another pillar
A growing part of the bullish narrative centers on SpaceX as an AI infrastructure provider, including renting out compute capacity. Supporters argue this business could become a major profit engine alongside launch and connectivity, especially if demand for large-scale AI training and inference remains strong. Enterprise relationships are still developing, but the company is seen as having room to expand there.
Stock outlook remains less certain than business outlook
Even backers of the long-term thesis cautioned that near-term stock moves are inherently unpredictable. The argument is that markets can misprice even rapidly improving companies for years, as seen in past examples such as Tesla. On that view, the more relevant question is not whether SpaceX shares rise quickly, but whether the underlying businesses continue compounding.
CONCLUSION
The immediate acquisition story appears to have been false, but the episode underscored how closely investors are watching SpaceX’s AI ambitions. The bigger debate now is whether its mix of Starlink, launch and emerging AI businesses can justify far larger valuations over the rest of the decade.
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