Tech • IA • Crypto
⚠️The inevitable liquidation in Bitcoin is coming - The risk is at its peak
7/10TL;DR
Bitcoin’s drop below $60,000 reflects severe market stress, but key on-chain indicators suggest a definitive market bottom has not yet formed.
KEY POINTS
Sharp decline and widespread panic
Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000, losing nearly half its value from its peak above $126,000. Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with the Fear and Greed Index plunging as low as 8 and remaining in extreme fear territory around 17 for weeks. Such مستويات typically indicate heavy selling pressure and reduced buyer activity, but not necessarily a final السوق bottom.
Record ETF outflows
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced unprecedented withdrawals, with about $1.8 billion exiting in a single week. مجموع outflows reached roughly $2.43 billion in May and $4.5 billion in June, totaling nearly $7 billion in two months. These flows are largely attributed to newer, less committed investors exiting positions amid volatility.
Leverage wipeout across markets
Leveraged positions have been heavily liquidated, with approximately $15 billion erased in recent weeks. Forced liquidations of long positions have removed speculative excess, historically a necessary step toward market stabilization, but not sufficient alone to confirm a bottom.
On-chain profitability still positive
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric remains slightly positive at around 0.10, indicating the market is still, on average, in profit. This contrasts with previous cycle bottoms such as November 2022, when NUPL dropped to -0.31, signaling widespread losses and capitulation.
Miners not yet under pressure
The Puell Multiple, which gauges mining profitability, has not fallen into levels historically associated with miner capitulation. This suggests miners are not yet forced to sell reserves or shut down operations, a key feature typically seen at true cycle lows.
Long-term holders still resilient
Long-term holders continue to hold significant supply and remain broadly in profit. Only about 48% of total supply is currently in profit, compared to deeper संकट levels of 45% in 2022 and 40% in 2019. While some distribution has begun, it does not yet resemble full-scale capitulation.
Critical price threshold near $48,000
A crucial مستوى lies near $48,000, representing the average cost basis of long-term holders. Historically, breaking below this level triggers deeper capitulation, pushing key metrics into negative territory and accelerating declines. This threshold remains intact for now.
Potential catalysts for further downside
عدة risks could drive Bitcoin toward this level, including renewed weakness in technology stocks, delays in U.S. crypto regulation, or large institutional sales. Past cycles show that such breaks can lead to rapid drops, such as -20% in two days or -42% over weeks.
CONCLUSION
Despite extreme fear and heavy selling, Bitcoin has not yet met the historical conditions associated with a definitive market bottom, leaving open the possibility of further downside before a true capitulation occurs.