Tech • IA • Crypto
BITCOIN: Warning sign before $67,000.. (something is wrong)
7/10TL;DR
Bitcoin is approaching a key technical zone around $64,700, but signals from the options market suggest a potential loss of momentum.
KEY POINTS
An upside target still in sight
The market remains geared toward a liquidity grab above recent highs, particularly around $64,700. This area concentrates significant stop orders, often targeted during rebound phases. An extension toward $65,600 to $67,300 remains possible in the short term.
A concerning signal from options flow
The DEX, a key indicator of options positioning, dropped from $445 million to $93 million in just a few days. This decline reflects weakening bullish momentum. The current move may lack structural support.
Risk of a “fake breakout”
A rise followed by a quick rejection below $63,000 would be seen as a negative signal. This scenario would correspond to a simple stop hunt before a bearish reversal. This type of setup often precedes a renewed downtrend.
The decisive role of the last low
Holding the most recent low is essential to maintain a bullish structure. A breakdown would open the way toward $57,700, or even $55,500. Below that, the market would enter a more pronounced weak phase.
A neutral to bearish institutional bias
Data from ETF-related options, notably BlackRock’s IBIT, shows limited directional positioning. The DEX there is even in negative territory. Institutional players are not actively supporting further upside.
A broader trend still bearish
Despite the recent rebound, higher timeframes remain bearish. Analysts favor a scenario of trend continuation to the downside, with a potential bottoming zone between $50,000 and $44,000.
Market imbalances to be filled
Gaps in the volume profile highlight price areas with little trading activity. Historically, Bitcoin tends to revisit and fill these imbalances before continuing its trend, reinforcing the case for a future pullback.
Ethereum follows a similar pattern
Ethereum could target a liquidity grab around $1,848. Short-term technical structures still support a limited upside. However, as with Bitcoin, the lack of clear support from options caps sustained bullish potential.
A market awaiting confirmation
Ethereum’s options indicators remain near neutral, with a slight but weak positive bias. The lack of strong investor conviction calls for caution regarding any lasting recovery.
CONCLUSION
Despite short-term upside potential, signals from the options market and institutional flows point to a fragile rebound, with a high risk of a bearish reversal in the coming sessions.