Tech • IA • Crypto
Altcoins: everyone is selling… big mistake? 🚨
6/10TL;DR
Shrinking liquidity and shifting macro conditions are keeping crypto subdued, with altcoins showing early stabilization but no clear catalyst for a broad recovery.
KEY POINTS
Altcoins show signs of bottoming
Relative to Bitcoin, altcoins appear to be forming a structural bottom after a prolonged downtrend. While Bitcoin entered a weaker phase around late 2025, altcoins have stopped declining against it, signaling a possible capitulation phase. However, historical cycles show such phases can last years before a sustained recovery.
No true liquidity expansion yet
Despite market narratives סביב easing, the Federal Reserve balance sheet shows only limited support. There is no meaningful quantitative easing, and liquidity conditions remain tight. This lack of expansion continues to weigh on speculative assets like cryptocurrencies.
Traditional markets outperform crypto
The S&P 500 remains near all-time highs, driven by sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and robotics. Increased activity in smaller U.S. stocks, reflected in the Russell-to-S&P ratio, indicates rising risk appetite in equities, but this has not translated into crypto inflows.
Dollar strength poses downside risk
The U.S. dollar is showing potential for a bullish breakout. A stronger dollar could pressure Bitcoin, particularly if key support near $60,000 is breached. Such a move may trigger broader weakness across the crypto market.
Global liquidity continues to contract
Measures of U.S. net liquidity and global central bank liquidity both point to ongoing contraction. This environment historically correlates with reduced investor interest in crypto and limits upside momentum.
Stablecoin flows suggest no full capitulation
Outflows from stablecoins indicate capital leaving the crypto market since mid-May. However, compared to 2022, current outflows are smaller relative to total supply, suggesting that a true capitulation event may not have occurred yet.
Potential final sell-off scenario
A decisive break below Bitcoin support could trigger a sharper wave of stablecoin outflows, marking a more definitive capitulation. Historically, such spikes in capital withdrawal often coincide with market bottoms.
Macro triggers remain uncertain
Key catalysts for renewed liquidity include interest rate cuts, declining oil prices, and geopolitical stabilization. Without these, markets may continue to price in further rate hikes, delaying recovery.
Narrative-driven rallies have faded
Previous drivers such as Bitcoin ETFs, U.S. political support, and speculative policy ideas have lost momentum. Since late 2025, capital inflows into crypto have diminished while competing sectors continue to جذب investment.
Next major catalysts are long-term
Future upside may depend on structural events like the Bitcoin halving in 2028, potential regulatory clarity, or institutional mechanisms such as strategic reserves or new ETF models. Until then, strong bullish narratives remain limited.
Shift toward accumulation phase
With prices stabilizing and volatility declining, the market appears to be entering a slow accumulation phase. Investors are gradually positioning rather than aggressively allocating, awaiting clearer macro and liquidity signals.
CONCLUSION
Crypto markets remain constrained by tight liquidity and weak inflows, with altcoins stabilizing but lacking catalysts, suggesting a prolonged accumulation phase before any sustained recovery.