Tech • IA • Crypto
Bitcoin falls… but the real danger is coming
7/10TL;DR
Financial markets are navigating between geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and clear divergences between assets, notably between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.
KEY POINTS
Liquidations and moderate downside pressure
A recent drop led to about $250 million in long liquidations versus $76 million in shorts. This asymmetry reflects temporary selling pressure without widespread panic. The crypto market remains resilient, but lower liquidity zones are still exposed.
Divergence between Bitcoin and Nasdaq
While the Nasdaq continues to rise, Bitcoin is showing signs of underperformance. This divergence raises questions about the strength of the overall move and suggests a possible disconnect between traditional markets and crypto assets.
Signs of euphoria in equities
Growing interest from retail investors, including near-retirement profiles considering heavy allocations, echoes past excess phases. The seasonal context of May, often linked to higher volatility, reinforces caution.
Shift in strategy around MicroStrategy
Michael Saylor is signaling a shift by mentioning the possibility of selling Bitcoin, marking a change in narrative. This approach aims to acclimate the market to profit-taking in a still-bullish environment, to reduce future psychological impact.
Trade tensions and political limits
Donald Trump is increasing pressure on the European Union with a tariff ultimatum set for July 4. However, legal rulings are weakening these measures, notably after challenges to blanket 10% tariffs, reducing their strategic impact.
Heightened geopolitical tensions
Frictions around Iran persist, with accusations of ceasefire violations and targeted strikes. Despite this, traditional markets remain largely unaffected, treating these events as negotiation levers rather than immediate systemic risks.
Key macroeconomic indicators
An unemployment rate around 4.3% and inflation data could strongly influence markets. Inflation above 3.5% to 4%, fueled by oil over $100, would heighten concerns. The rise of AI could also weigh on employment, reshaping economic balances.
Bitcoin and dedollarization strategy
According to JP Morgan, Bitcoin is gaining importance as an alternative to gold in diversification strategies against dollar depreciation. This fits into a broader trend of seeking safe-haven assets outside fiat currencies.
Acceleration of crypto adoption
Amazon AWS is developing payment solutions integrating Coinbase and Stripe, while Kraken is investing $600 million in a fintech to strengthen stablecoin infrastructure in Europe and Asia. Integration between traditional finance and crypto continues.
Critical technical levels for Bitcoin
Bitcoin is testing key zones around $79,000, with a critical threshold between $77,000 and $78,000. A breakdown could lead to a drop toward $70,000, while a rebound could target $86,000. The current structure suggests fragile consolidation with low volume.
CONCLUSION
Amid macroeconomic tensions, structural shifts, and fragile technical signals, markets are in a pivotal phase where investor psychology may become the decisive factor.