Tech • IA • Crypto
LES INDICES NE S'ARRÊTENT PLUS ! EUPHORIE ou PEUR ?
6/10TL;DR
Financial markets continue their upward momentum, driven by strong U.S. indices and declining volatility, while the dollar approaches key technical levels.
KEY POINTS
Continued rise of the Nasdaq and S&P 500
The Nasdaq has posted several consecutive weeks of gains and is moving away from its 2026 lows, reinforcing the idea of a sustained bullish cycle. The S&P 500 is following a similar path, with medium-term technical targets around 7,562 and 7,834 points. However, current extension zones suggest a risk of short-term consolidation.
A lagging but promising Dow Jones
Unlike other indices, the Dow Jones has not yet reached a new all-time high. This gap is seen as catch-up potential, with a target at the highs of the first quarter of 2026. Any pullback toward support zones could provide entry points for investors.
Favorable technical signals despite consolidation phases
Markets are operating in advanced technical zones, with possible retracements or consolidation phases. Nevertheless, the overall structure remains upward-oriented, supported by persistent buying flows and technical levels yet to be reached on several indices.
A dollar near its recent lows
The dollar index is approaching its April low, a zone likely to trigger a technical rebound. In the short term, a stabilization or range phase is favored over an immediate continuation of the decline. Prolonged weakness in the greenback would still support risk assets.
Euro-dollar positioned for a rebound
Mirroring the dollar, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of recovery with potential to return to the previous month’s highs. The trend remains constructive, although a consolidation phase cannot be ruled out before any new upward move.
Oil still trapped in a range
Oil is moving without clear direction, stuck in a horizontal channel. The lack of a breakout maintains a stable environment, limiting inflationary pressures and contributing to market calm.
A declining VIX, a key signal for equities
The VIX volatility index remains structurally bearish across multiple timeframes. This trend suggests continued upside in equity markets, with a target of returning to recent lows. Episodes of stress are expected to remain limited and temporary.
Gold losing direction after a strong rally
After a sharp rise, gold is showing signs of fatigue. The precious metal is entering a contraction phase without a clear trend, suggesting a potential local top. The lack of new catalysts is currently limiting prospects for further upside.
CONCLUSION
The overall environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by declining volatility and strong U.S. indices, despite signs of short-term consolidation.