
Tech • IA • Crypto
Bitcoin (BTC) is holding key support after a failed breakdown, preserving a short-term bullish structure. Price is now targeting $65,600 and $67,255, with a broader magnet between $67,000–$70,500. These levels align with unfilled inefficiencies and clustered stop orders. The move is likely a liquidity sweep before a larger directional decision.
Derivatives positioning has shifted sharply, with delta exposure swinging from -192M to +380M. This reflects aggressive dip-buying and a renewed upside bias among traders. Rising gamma suggests positioning for prices above $64K–$65K. The setup supports continued upward pressure in the near term.
Recent upside appears fueled more by short covering than fresh institutional demand. ETF inflows remain modest at roughly $90M, while options flows are near neutral. This weak conviction raises doubts about sustainability. Such rallies often fade once forced buying subsides.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of retracement after losing key technical levels. A softer dollar typically eases financial conditions and supports risk assets like crypto. Strength in EUR/USD reinforces this trend. The macro backdrop is increasingly favorable for upside continuation.
Markets are pricing in a more dovish Federal Reserve, with growing expectations of rate cuts by year-end. Internal divisions within the Fed have reduced confidence in further tightening. This shift has supported equities and crypto alike. Liquidity expectations remain a central driver of risk appetite.
The Nasdaq continues consolidating despite geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran. Meanwhile, the VIX remains subdued, signaling low market stress. This combination often precedes further upside in equities. A bear trap scenario is increasingly plausible if momentum holds.
The altcoin market may not have bottomed, with projected declines of 22%–42%. The TOTAL3 index could fall toward $220B–$278B before stabilizing. This suggests continued volatility and caution in non-Bitcoin assets. Capital rotation into BTC remains the dominant strategy.
French authorities reaffirm that crypto taxes are triggered at the point of sale, not relocation. Gains realized in 2025 remain taxable even if investors move abroad بعدها. There is no direct crypto exit tax, but enforcement is tightening. A 10-year statute of limitations increases long-term compliance risks.