
Tech • IA • Crypto
Venture capital is going through a period of doubt, while the Bitcoin ecosystem is emerging as a new field of innovation likely to reshape its rules.
For the first time in nearly two decades, overall venture capital returns were negative in 2023, revealing a slowdown in the model. The sharp drop in investments between 2021 and 2024, particularly from family offices and funds of funds, has broken the traditional startup funding chain, weakening Series A and B rounds.
Several investors compare the current situation to the post-dot-com bubble period of 2000–2004. That phase preceded a particularly favorable cycle, suggesting the current slowdown could be an attractive entry point rather than a lasting system failure.
The venture capital model relies on a “power law” logic where a minority of successes offsets many losses. This system is criticized for its imbalances, including excessive valuations from early rounds and strong pressure on startups to generate 10x to 30x returns.
Integrating technologies from Bitcoin could transform how funds operate, notably by reducing illiquidity. Tokenizing assets or fund shares could improve liquidity and attract new investors, traditionally deterred by horizons of 10 years or more.
Venture capital must now compete with attractive alternatives such as AI-related equities, public markets, and Bitcoin itself. This competition diverts capital flows and pushes the sector to reinvent itself.
The Bitcoin startup landscape extends well beyond cryptocurrencies, including payments, neobanks, financial infrastructure, and artificial intelligence. Hybrid models are emerging, combining Lightning Network, stablecoins, and targeted fintech services, particularly for cross-border transfers.
AI is both a major competitor for funding and a potential catalyst for Bitcoin. Autonomous systems may favor Bitcoin as a medium of exchange due to its lack of friction and independence from intermediaries, reinforcing its role in the digital economy.
Despite progress, some promises remain uncertain, especially around second-layer solutions. The lack of congestion on the main network currently limits demand for these innovations, slowing their adoption.
The community of Bitcoin holders could become a new investor base for venture capital. Financial mechanisms, such as loans backed by Bitcoin reserves, could inject liquidity without selling the asset.
In the long term, Bitcoin could become a store of value integrated into the entire digital financial system. Hybrid instruments combining stablecoins and Bitcoin reserves could become widespread, redefining the business models of startups and funds.
Between a downturn and technological transformation, venture capital is exploring new models where Bitcoin could play a structuring role in the finance and innovation of tomorrow.